TROPICAL UPDATE 6-27-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

The first area to discuss this morning is most definitely in the Mariana Islands where Tropical Storm Mindulle is affcting the area with wind, high waves, flooding rains, and the possibility of typhoon force winds, especially in the northern Mariana Islands.

The latest on Tropical Storm Tingting shows it centered near latitude 14.1 north, longitude 148.1 east or about 235 miles east northeast of Guam or about 165 miles east southeast of Saipan. Movement is towards the northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Tingting is expected to strengthen to a typhoon over the next 12 hours or so as it lashes the Mariana Islands.

Some of the local observations from the Mariana Islands are as follows. In Guam, more heavy rain continues and a flash flood warning is in effect for the entire island of Guam until 11 PM LST. The expectation though is the flash flood warning will be extended well beyond that point. Radar estimates show that over a foot of rain has already fallen in this area and alot more is expected on top of that. On the latest obs from Guam, heavy rain is falling. Temperature 77, dewpoint 77, relative humidity 100%. Winds west 31 mph gusting to 44 mph. Pressure 29.52 inches and it's been rising slightly over the past hour or two. In Rota Intl, reporting light showers. Temperature 79, dewpoint 79, relative humidity 100%. Northwest wind 18 mph gusting to 28. Barometric pressure is not available.

At Saipan Intl, mostly cloudy skies are reported with a temperature of 81 degrees. North wind 15 mph gusting to 26 mph. Barometer 29.37 inches.

The warnings and watches remain the same with a typhoon watch and a tropical storm warning in effect for Guam and Rota. A typhoon warning is up for the Saipan and Tinian area. This system will continued to be closely monitored.

Meanwhile we have a new typhoon in the western Pacific just east of the Philippines that is strengthening. Maximum sustained winds with typhoon Mindulle is now up to 75 mph with higher gusts. Movement continues toward the northwest at 9 mph. The coordinates places Mindulle near latitude 16.7 north, longitude 128.1 east. Later in the forecast the potential is there for a landfall near Taiwan. No doubt a busy time in the west Pac this morning.

Elsewhere all is quiet in the eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic Basin. The only systems of note are near the lesser Antillies with heavy rain squalls associated with an upper air feature. No development is expected from that. Meanwhile just a few showers and storms are continuing in the east Pacific. The area near 18 north, 118 west has weakened quite a bit and tropical development is not very likely. The next area to look at is near 18 north, 96 west with an area of convection. But as we've seen in recent days, scattered moderate to strong convection will wax and wane, then wax and wane again. As long as that occurs, tropical development is not an immient concern.

That's the latest on a busy tropical update this morning.

Jim