Will July bring first storm(s) or nothing will develop?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 6:58 am

Well June was a quiet month in 2004 in terms of tropical depressions and storms forming but now the question is what will the month of july bring in terms of developing depressions and tropical storms.I say that a couple of systems will form into tropical storms and a TD will form but it will not turn into a tropical storm.Bold right but that is my hunch about July what about you?.

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:01 am

I went with "Two systems developing in july" However I had June 25th as the date for first development. Guess who lost ;-)

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:07 am

I went with two. :wink:

I guessed June too Chad :oops:

Maybe my luck will be better in July 8-)

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:08 am

I lost too as I said june 28th.

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:08 am

I also went with two systems. Way past my original forecast for first storm of the season. Both will be later in the month unless we get a really vigorous cut-off low coming off the lower TX coast just right. BRING ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONES!!!

#6 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:09 am

I said 2 July storms, and before the season, I think I said the first would develop July 10ish.

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:11 am

cycloneye wrote:I lost too as I said june 28th.

CYC maybe bump the thread up and start a second list as well in it as a second chance for all us that jumped the gun? ;-)

lol

Hyperstorm · #8 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 7:12 am

I think one or two systems in July is not out of the question. It is fairly normal to have at least 1 system during the early season (June/July). Besides, I don't think this will be a late season just like 2000. There are some factors that indicate, as others have discussed already, a POSSIBLE development by the middle part of next month.

BTW, my original GUESS for the first named system was July 10-20, so I might not be too far off after all.

#9 Postby **wx247** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:04 am

2 tropical storms, but that is just a very uneducated guess.

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:20 am

Still sticking to 1-2 (with 1 in the Mean Development Region) named storms. Reasoning below...from our 2004 seasonal forecast last May...

July

By July, conditions normally improve slightly from June, however, overall the atmosphere is still fairly hostile in the Atlantic Basin. In a typical season, about 1 named storm forms in July. Our climatological research indicates that the Gulf of Mexico will probably not see a tropical cyclone in July either, given the fact that only 1 formed when the ENSO and QBO matched up similar to this year. The western Atlantic and Mean Development Region look more promising, however. All of our analogs except 1953, the year with warm bias ENSO, had a named storm originate in the Mean Development Region. 2 of our analogs, 1966 and 1995, saw 2 named storms form in the western Atlantic, whereas the rest had none. Based on this information, we anticipate 1 to 2 named storms, with 1 originating in the Mean Development Region.

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 10:16 am

I'm going with 2 storms.. in July..

Thus starting the countdown to my prediction of 15/7/4

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 3:33 pm

I said 2 storms as well and I hope they dont get too strong and stir the waters too much so there is maximum potential, heat and energy in the Atlantic Basin when the heart of the season arrives for a beauty 8-)

Wnghs2007 · #13 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 3:45 pm

I went with 1 storm

chris_fit · #14 Postby **chris_fit** » Tue Jun 29, 2004 5:17 pm

ONE! :-D

Miss Mary · #15 Postby **Miss Mary** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 9:16 am

Hey all, since you seem to be the experts!!! We're vacationing at Emerald Isle, NC from July 11-18th. Is it too soon to see if a system may impact this area (just south of the Outer Banks)? We're allowing one of our daughters to bring along a friend. Just don't want anything to brew up while we're there! One good thing - we are NOT staying in the Outer Banks area, so if something did develop, leaving wouldn't be such a problem, since Emerald Isle is just off shore. Not way out like the Outer Banks' areas are!

Thanks!

Mary

chadtm80 · #16 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 9:47 am

To early to tell Mary, but my un expert answer would be that you will be more then fine

#17 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 1:13 pm

I go with Zero. Lets hope it's Zero for the next Five months.

Storm Man · #18 Postby **Storm Man** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 4:02 pm

In My Opinion 30 Day's Till The Big One!
Not Based On Anything But A Dream!
If I Am Wrong I Will Shut Down My Site!
I Think This Is Fair?

Miss Mary · #19 Postby **Miss Mary** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 8:01 pm

chadtm80 wrote:To early to tell Mary, but my un expert answer would be that you will be more then fine

Thanks Chad - I'll check back in with you all on this front next week. I would just freak out in an evacuation situation. Jim says we'd just ride it out. Yeah, that would be smart. We are ON the beach!

Mary

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:27 pm

Any more votes for this poll about what may happen in July?

Will July bring first storm(s) or nothing will develop?

Will July see tropical storm(s) developing or it will be quiet?

Will July bring first storm(s) or nothing will develop?

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