Look at the cool water off South America- WOW

[hurricanetrack]

This is quite interesting, even though it is only a snapshot of today. The cool water extending off of South America in to the Pacific is impressive. Wxman57 has posted excellent animations of such and it will be interesting to see how long this lasts.

Remember that in some of Dr. Gray's work this year, he mentions the possibility of La Nina conditions for the season. What constitutes La Nina exactly? Anyone know?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

[SupertyphoonTip]

A La-Nina event is defined as a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a negative sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C, averaged over three consecutive months.

[cycloneye]

Here is the information about what LA NINA is at link below.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html

[Derecho]

One thing to keep in mind about anomaly maps is that they use pretty vast color differences to show temperature difference that really aren't that big...and the scale varies from map to map.

FNMOC uses particularly striking oranges and deep blues in what is actually a fairly narrow range.

The water isn't THAT cool off South America, really.

And the last key thing, from a climatological standpoint, is that the key area for ENSO is NOT THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA but the CENTRAL PACIFIC.

I cannot emphasize that enough. There's an over-focus on the ENSO 1, 2 areas (just off Peru) compared to ENSO 3.4 which seems to be the area that really matters for ENSO affecting world climate.

And the temp of the ENSO 3.4 area is STILL just a hair ABOVE normal.

Given the recent fairly long period of negative SOI, I very seriously doubt you'll see anything resembling a La Nina this year.

[hurricanetrack]

This is why this board is so important. There are plenty of people who have good info to share on a variety of subjects. I do not know everything about tropical weather, but know a lot. When I pose a question here, it is great to have a collective group answer it- and in that regard, the collective group almost knows everything. Very cool indeed.

[MWatkins]

This is why this board is so important. There are plenty of people who have good info to share on a variety of subjects. I do not know everything about tropical weather, but know a lot. When I pose a question here, it is great to have a collective group answer it- and in that regard, the collective group almost knows everything. Very cool indeed.

Careful...the next logical extension to this point has something to do with communisim.

All kidding aside, though...like models...we (we being the people who post here) all have our biases...strengths and weaknesses. The thing about this board is that it's an ensemble of all of those things...so although biases show up they are smoothed out by dissenting opinions or good, solid facts. And it happens in a fairly non-combative context (on the whole).

Which reminds me...I need to start another post...

MW