Well, Its July any predictions/long range tropic forecast?

[BonesXL]

Anyone have any predictions or forecast for July?Your thoughts are welcome.

[Brent]

I think we could have a named storm this month... especially in the second-half of the month, but overall, most of the activity will be here between August 15 and October 15.

[HurricaneBill]

I'm thinking Alex will show up by the end of the month. Then Bonnie in early to mid August. I'm thinking Bonnie will be the first hurricane.

[LarryWx]

These comments based on climo:

Climo says that many July's are boring, with just over 0.5 named storms on average. About half of all July's have no storms. As a matter of fact, activity doesn't even really start to ramp up climowise until pretty late in the month (about the last week). The first three weeks of July are often very slow and slower than the mid-June mini-peak. Looking at history, few July storms have affected the US as major storms. We'll see what this July brings.

[Opal storm]

I say mid to late this month Alex will form in the Gulf/Carribbean,I know it's boring out there now but things can and will change sooner or later.

[SupertyphoonTip]

These comments based on climo:

Climo says that many July's are boring, with just over 0.5 named storms on average. About half of all July's have no storms. As a matter of fact, activity doesn't even really start to ramp up climowise until pretty late in the month (about the last week). The first three weeks of July are often very slow and slower than the mid-June mini-peak. Looking at history, few July storms have affected the US as major storms. We'll see what this July brings.

Actually, on average there are 1.2 named storms in July and 0.5 hurricanes. The first named storm of the season would normally occur by July 11. I think this year will begin a little later than that, but Alex (at least) will most likely occur this month.

[LarryWx]

[quote="SupertyphoonTip
Actually, on average there are 1.2 named storms in July and 0.5 hurricanes. The first named storm of the season would normally occur by July 11. I think this year will begin a little later than that, but Alex (at least) will most likely occur this month.[/quote]

The reason for the disagreement of our stats may be that we're looking at different periods of history. So, we could both be correct. The number "1.2" is actually right at the average number of named storms for May, June and July COMBINED for the period 1886-1977. As a matter of fact, I'm looking at the publication, "Cyclones of the North Atlantic", which says that the average number of tropical cyclones (named storms) for the period 1886-1977 was 0.6 for July alone and 1.2 for May, June, and July combined. For May, it was 0.1, June 0.5, and July 0.6. For hurricanes, the May-July number is 0.5, with 0.2 in June and 0.3 in July (once again matching your number). However, if one just looked at the 1990's, there was, on average, just over one NS per July. By the way, I define July storms as storms that first became TD's in July.

The AVERAGE first named storm date is (based on 1944-1996), indeed, 7/11 per the following link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

I believe that jibes pretty well with the stats I quoted. Keep in mind that the average first named storm is much later than that given that we've had none as of 7/1. I would guess that it is pretty late in July or even close to 8/1 for seasons with none as of 7/1. That date of 7/11 is for before the season has begun.

[SupertyphoonTip]

I was actually looking at July averages, not the cumulative May-July averages, but used the GTCCA ( http://navy.ncdc.noaa.gov/products/gtcca/gtccamain.html), which defines a July tropical storm as a tropical storm forming anytime during July, whether or not the depression did. So I guess that made the difference.

[mf_dolphin]

i wouldn't be surprised to see something form in the Western Caribbean toward the end of the month. That's where I usually look for signs of activity early in the season. With the waters plenty warm now we just need the upper winds to cooperate and something could cook up pretty quick.

[Derek Ortt]

There have been a whole 5 or 6 July storms in the Carib ever. The last 2, interestingly (Cesar and Claudette) have been E Carib storms. We may get a GOM or a CV storm, but I am not at all convinced that we will have a storm in july