Mindulle Advisories

[wxman57]

Yep, it appears to have lost most convectin in the northern half of the storm now. The northern eyewall is open. Definitely some dry air moving in from the north, along with an upper-level trof that's disrupting outflow in the northern half of the storm. Doesn't appear to be moving much now, either.

[SupertyphoonTip]

Intensity estimates are down to T5.0/6.0, so Mindulle has weakened a great deal. The chances of it becoming a super-typhoon are now very small, and the 12Z forecast shows that the typhoon-force winds will miss Taiwan completely. Still, Mindulle will organize a little once it moves away from the Philippines, so some very heavy rain is in store for the island.

[HURAKAN]

Over the past hours Typhoons Mindulle looks to be moving more toward the west or southwest rather than WNW. If this motion is true this will bring the center of Mindulle very near or over the coast of Luzon, in the Philippines. With its slow & erratic movement the devastation over the mentioned area could be of cataclysmic proportions. To its east we have Mindulle's twin Tingting which over the last few ours have lost some organization which can be seen in its drop of 5 knots in intensity. Probably, its demise is a reorganization of the eye and over the next hours it should come back with an intensification period.




http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops ... color.html

[bahamaswx]

Looks more like Tingting managed to wrap some dry air into himself...or herself?

[Aslkahuna]

is passing very close to northern Luzon and is getting ripped to shreds by the terrain interaction. Northern Luzon is extremelt mountainous with peaks up close to 10k and this terrain is resulting in the interruption of the inflow into the storm. Very heavy rain and gusty winds will occur on the west coast of Luzon from Manila Bay northward to Laoag and Vigan on the north with the core of the heaviest rains around Iba, Dagupan, Baguio City, San Fernando La Union and Laoag. Heavy rains will also occur in the mountains. Generally the wind field of the storm will be severely disrupted by the terrain with only exposed coastal locations getting the strongest winds as well as the Batanes Island group in the Channel between Luzon and Taiwan. With the slow movement of the storm, inland flooding is going to be a serious problem in northern and Central Luzon.

Steve

[SupertyphoonTip]

Mindulle has definitely become less organized throughout the day, but maximum winds remain just below super-typhoon strength. The Taiwan radar shows very heavy rain mainly south of the island and even Mindulle's eye is visible.

Typhoon Tingting is slowly strengthening and re-organizing, and Iwo-jima, a Japanese island, will most likely be in its western eyewall within the next few hours. The worst of the typhoon for them will occur tonight. Here is a link to their observations (some reports are missing):
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJAW.html

[Dave C]

It's sunrise there now so the next 12 or so hrs. their obs. will be complete. If the storm wobbles to the NW they could get close to the eye.

[SupertyphoonTip]

In Iwo-Jima, winds are already gusting to typhoon-force with very heavy rain. Pressure now down to 982. Maximum gust so far was 79 MPH with 47 MPH sustained. Conditions are going downhill fast and this should continue for the next several hours.

[chris_fit]

That pic is sick!

sick=sweet

[SupertyphoonTip]

Tingting's eye is now just to the southeast of Iwo-jima. The island is in the eyewall. The typhoon is moving at 350 degrees (slight westward component) and should be just east of the island in 5 hours. The next few reports should be quite interesting!

[Anonymous]

http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/En ... ndulle.htm

[Anonymous]

I still am shocked Mindulle is forecast to get to 180 mph. It is rather close to land, it's eye is still not that well organized, and it just seems to reagged. I was very surprsied last night to see it jump from 80 mph to 135 mph.

FLOYDBUSTER RIGHT AGAIN!!! I had a feeling it would not get to 180 mph.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/07/03/a ... index.html

A tragic outcome from this system which weakened from supertyphoon status at one point but anyway it did extensive damage and killed many people.

[Lindaloo]

That is sad news!!

[HURAKAN]

That is sad news!!

Truly is sad news but I though it was going to be worse since Luzon is very mountainous.

[Lindaloo]

Good point Hurakan.

[Aslkahuna]

Taiwan is also mountainous-in fact, the highest peak on the island is 13k feet tall. Both islands are very similar in terrain characteristics. Northern Luzon, though, is not where the bulk of the population of the island resides. The most people on the island live in the Central Valley, around Manila and the Bicol region in the SE portion of the island. The main population centers on Taiwan are mostly on the west side of the island.

Steve