People are too much into models !

[Anonymous]

A stormchaser I read about (Tim Marshall) of Texas wrote 10 years ago that we appear to be spending way too much time with computer models and such, instead of going out in the field and experiencing "real nature". I would agree there ! Model data is an excellent tool to have, but I don't want to spent the rest of my life on a PC terminal just looking at simulations of storms and forecast tracks....etc. I think you have to go out there and see what nature has in store to really appreciate "weather".

That's why when I go storm chasing, I don't want to have a computer with me at all. It would defeat the whole purpose of enjoying the "real action" out there. In fact, I don't even want to see it once I finally arrive there because I would get way too sidetracked about all the data and such........ plus I would miss all the action looking at the computer instead of what's going on outside !!

I prefer to look at forecast models BEFORE I go, then when you get there, keep a weather radio handy, sit back, enjoy the action and watch nature's fireworks display.

Ken

[ColdFront77]

I would think that most of us interested in meteorology don't take forecast weather models into "ultimate account"; especially no particular model over another.

You need to have a computer with you while chasing in order to see the latest radar images.

[Anonymous]

Me ? Well I prefer to be cell phone free and computer free when I drive. I hate distractions. Then during the action, I go outside (which I did during Isabel last year) instead of sitting inside the motel and looking at a computer all day. Plus, it would make me angry knowing I missed the strongest activity anyway after taking all the trouble to get there. By that time, either I'm going to see it or not.

I prefer to see the real thing in action. It's more enjoyable

[ColdFront77]

Plural you, not necessarily you personally.

It is nice to know where the cells you are looking for is.

[Anonymous]

well I take Hurricane Hugo as an example.

I really enjoyed looking at the "real action" in the glass porch downwind, instead of looking at a computer in my room missing the "real action"

you couldn't go anywhere during the height of the storm anyhow.

ken

[ColdFront77]

I thought you were referring to severe weather, not tropical cyclones; as you didn't use the word tropical or hurricane, instead "stormchaser" was used... despite this being in the Hurricane Hollow Tropical Weather forum.

[Aslkahuna]

With our good visibility here in AZ, monsoon storm chasing can be done without needing to look at the radar but in the Plains, you should at least know where your target is at. But I agree, once you get there it's time to trash the electronics and grab the camcorder and camera and watch the action. However, since I'm also a Spotter and one in a lightly populated area, I do need the Cell Phone for calling in reports. Last year, we actually had the anticipation of planning an intercept on Tropical Storm Marty and would have done so had the storm cooperated.

Steve

[Anonymous]

Agreed there ! I used to have a cell phone but it was too expensive and always cut off on me. And since I just do it for a hobbies sake, I just want to enjoy it.

[ColdFront77]

I thought you were referring to severe weather, not tropical cyclones; as you didn't use the word tropical or hurricane, instead "stormchaser" was used... despite this being in the Hurricane Hollow Tropical Weather forum.

..... at the same time knowing full well that you were also referring to tropical cyclone forecast models.

Hopefully that made sense, if not I know what I mean and no offense, that is what counts.

[KatDaddy]

I use models to look for a consensus of what may occur within a 10 day out t period. There is no guarantee what will occur in 3 days much less 10 days and out but at least it’s a tool. Sometimes models hit it and sometimes they do not but if a tropical system is headed toward my area I begin to study the future model forecasts as well as look at the overall weather pattern. Anytime a model points toward the Upper TX Coast I will post it for information. Just because I post and state the BAMMD is plotting and Upper TX Coast landfall does not mean it will actually occur. It’s a statement of the current model run and you need to watch the future models runs as well as the current progress of the system. It’s simply a wake-up post to the Upper TX Coast posters.


Now when it comes to being at ground zero, no model matters.....the event is there 100%. I doubt anyone is studying models when they are in an eyewall unless the career dictates which does, has, and will occur again.

[Rainband]

Very good points Katdaddy

[MGC]

I rarely look at the models. I look at satellite loops the most. You can judge the health of a tropical system from its satellite presentation 90% of the time......MGC

[ColdFront77]

Those rare looks at the models are the guidance that is needed to get a feel of what a tropical system, even in it's infancy (but not true true infancy) will be go. One of the fun things that goes along with it is the change in the models, sometimes more dramatic and more interesting than others.