Tropical Depression One-C Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM HST on July 04, 2004
at 5 PM HST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression One-c was located near latitude 7.3 north...longitude 165.3 west or about 700 miles south-southeast of Johnston Island.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM HST position...7.3 N...165.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center at 11 PM HST.
Forecaster Rosendal
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM HST on July 4, 2004
The path of one-c has been projected a little north of the available guidance but south of the GFS-AVN guidance. The intensity has been gradually boosted from the current 25 kt to tropical storm intensity in 36 hours and almost hurricane/typhoon west of the dateline at 120 hours. The intensity of the system is presently at the diurnal minimum with warmer cloud tops than 6 to 12 hours ago. However the system does seem to have good outflow aloft as seen in the nice anticyclonic outflow seen in the satellite water vapor imagery. The system is following the 28c isotherm with good sensible and latent heat influx from the south associated with the nearby 30c water. The high amplitude flow over the North Pacific will likely mean a slowdown in forward motion speed after the current initial fast movement.
Forecaster Rosendal
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 05/0300z 7.3n 165.3w 25 kt
12hr VT 05/1200z 8.0n 167.4w 25 kt
24hr VT 06/0000z 9.1n 169.7w 30 kt
36hr VT 06/1200z 10.2n 171.8w 35 kt
48hr VT 07/0000z 11.3n 173.5w 40 kt
72hr VT 08/0000z 13.0n 176.4w 45 kt
96hr VT 09/0000z 14.6n 179.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 10/0000z 16.0n 178.1e 60 kt
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Computer Model
