95L INVEST FOR EAST ATLANTIC WAVE

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

WOW a pretty impressive wave there but it will have to fight some hurdles if it wants to survive but anyway it is the first system that far that looks somewhat promising but time will tell what will happen with it.

[hurricanetrack]

Also- see what Franklin wrote- remember the wave that became "Bertha"? It was on Julyt 4th, 1996, if I remember correctly, that it became a depresison.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT
550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...WATER TEMPERATURES AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE MARGINAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

[vacanechaser]

you are right cycloneye that is the best looking one so far... it is really time for everyone to be ready.... with the waves looking like that, you know the cape verde season is not to far off....

i have not posted in a while... been a little busy here and there.. but with the season on the edge of gettin going, so to speak, i will be around now ready for the action... lol...

take care

[Hurricanehink]

Well, marginally favorable is a good sign. If the shear just decreases a little more, I'm sure a depression could form. Hurricanetrack, good point about Bertha. A storm can really form anywhere, with the right conditions. This wave looks pretty similar to Bertha's precursor. You never know. Maybe the start isn't too far off.

[cycloneye]

Now let's see what the global models will show about it.

[chadtm80]

Very interesting in deed

[Brent]

YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

We see many such systems move off the west coast of Africa each season. Most of them lose their apparenet LLCs within a day or two of moving offshore. So the key here is whether or not this one can maintain itself until, say, Wednesday. It's possible that if it looks as good or better by this time tomorrow, that the NHC may well call it TD 1. The key is persistence.

Interesting 12Z GFS - takes it across the northern Caribbean in about 8-9 days, toward western Cuba, then north to the Apalachicola, FL area (central Panhandle). For now, assuming development, it could go anywhere from Mexico to Bermuda. However, the general steering currents so far this season would suggest the more southern track into the Caribbean.

Personally, I hope it goes away. I have too much to do yet before the start of the season!

[cycloneye]

Yes Chris the word is persistence of the circulation and also to gain convection and persist on that too and then we have TD.

[Rainband]

Something to watch!!!

[rainstorm]

looks like alot of subsiding air just to its nw

[PTPatrick]

How many days out is that GFS you were talking about...that seems like quite a far trip to be covered in a model...generally a wave takes close to 10 days to get from africa to the western caribean. If memory serves it was almost exactly 2 weeks from the time that george got going til when it hit Mississippi.

[cycloneye]

Convection has decreased from this morning but still has a vigorous circulation so it is a matter for it to develop to gain convection and mantain that kind of circulation and persist and then a TD may be born but it is far from that at this point.

[wxman57]

How many days out is that GFS you were talking about...that seems like quite a far trip to be covered in a model...generally a wave takes close to 10 days to get from africa to the western caribean. If memory serves it was almost exactly 2 weeks from the time that george got going til when it hit Mississippi.

You're correct - GFS moves it inland into central FL panhandle at 384hrs. Of course, I'd never doubt the GFS's 15-day forecast.

[Weatherboy1]

Hello all -- I finally got around to registering over here after posting at Storm2004 (and 2003, 2002, etc. all the way back to 1998). Glad to be aboard. As for this wave, seems to me the important question to ask is "Where's the convection?" The marginal SSTs and other factors appear to be suppressing any real storm development over the apparent center of this wave's circulation. Until we see more peristent storminess, I doubt we'll see any real development.

For what it's worth, though, I think this could be a real big season for long-tracked storms. There's been one heck of an Atlantic ridge out there for a few weeks, and that means anything that does develop could track W or WNW for several days rather than recurve early. Of course, that's assuming current patterns persist into August and September.

And just as an aside, anyone know what the problem is with the CIMSS web site? Seems like their shear and steering current analysis products have been working only sporadically for several days. Forgive me if this has been addressed elsewhere already.

-Mike

[elking]

Hi, I'm a newbie and I have a couple of questions which I hope you don't mind me asking.

How do SST anomalies effect hurricane formations and would the current hot spot of NW African coast have any impact on the conception and intensity of hurricanes this season?

Also, what climatic conditions are most favorable for a hurricane and what ingredients would YOU use to create a perfect hurricane - for example Lady Isobel last year when she was majestically swirling over the Atlantic last year?

Thanks,

[Dean4Storms]

Something to keep an eye on for sure, but I don't give it much chance out in the east Atlantic right now other than maybe maintaining as a strong TW. May very well be something on the other hand once it gets into the Carib.

[wxman57]

Hi, I'm a newbie and I have a couple of questions which I hope you don't mind me asking.

How do SST anomalies effect hurricane formations and would the current hot spot of NW African coast have any impact on the conception and intensity of hurricanes this season?

Also, what climatic conditions are most favorable for a hurricane and what ingredients would YOU use to create a perfect hurricane - for example Lady Isobel last year when she was majestically swirling over the Atlantic last year?

Thanks,

1. Tropical cyclones are basically heat engines. They draw in warm, moist air at the surface. As the air rises, it cools and condenses into water vapor, releasing heat in the process. The warmer the ocean surface, the more energy that is available to the hurricane. But to affect the development of a hurricane, the storm must be over the warm water. Since African wave typpicall move offshore between 10N-15N, that pocket of warm water off the NW African coast will be of no consequence. However, SSTs between 10N-15N are now at normal to slightly above normal levels, which means the temps are perhaps just barely warm enough to support development. But SSTs increase as the disturbance moves west.

2. As for your second quesiton, besides warm SSTs, an incipient storm needs to be in an environment of low relative wind shear. Shear was present over Isabel, but it was directed in the same direction of Isabel's motion, making net wind shear near zero.

[ColdFront77]

This from the NWS TPC/National Hurricale Center's 2:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion (as Vortex posted) in another thread is worth noting:

Tropical waves/ITCZ...
tropical wave is introduced along 17w south of 16n moving west
15 kt. Impressive cyclonic turning is off the coast of Africa
near 10n. Tropical cyclonic formation has not been known to
occur this far east in the Atlantic...this early in the
hurricane season. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 7n-11n between 17w-22w.

Welcome to Storm2k Mike (Weatherboy1) and welcome back Jesse (vacanechaser).

[stormchazer]

The think this wave has going for it is a very good signature at its infancy. The convection is subsiding but the twist is evident. If it takes 10 to 12 to cross the Atlantic, it will be nearing the time when Hurricane activity typically begins to increase.



http://www.stormcarib.com/climatology/ATLN_weekly.htm


If it survives and gets close to the Lesser Antilles, we may have our first player of the year.