95L INVEST FOR EAST ATLANTIC WAVE

#21 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 3:46 pm

Too early for a CV storm. It might make it across the Atlantic and do something in a few days so it will be something to watch for development......MGC

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 3:50 pm

Welcome Weatherboy1 and elking.Hey Weatherboy1 you haved been in gobpi lowes board now known as storm2004 right?Glad to see you at storm2k and you will like it here as we have great discussions and plenty of anaylisis.About the wave if it mantains itself then when it passes 50w it may well be a big player.

KatDaddy · #23 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:04 pm

From the TPC......this could become a very early CV system yet.

Tropical Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURES AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:09 pm

KatDaddy is this the wave the people in Corpus Christi NWS office mentioned in their discussions a few days ago or it is another wave? I ask because it would take almost 2 weeks for this wave to travel all the way from where it is now into the GOM.

Steve H. · #25 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:20 pm

No Luis, I believe that the wave in the eastern Caribbean is the one that was forecast to go onto the western GOM per the AFD. BTW, why did they drop 95L???? Too disorganized. :cry:

KatDaddy · #26 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:23 pm

the Corpus AFD was indeed discussing the E Caribbean TW that fizzled over the last 24 hours. Invest 95L is still active for now.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:25 pm

Steve H 95L is up at the backup site of NRL but not at the main site.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:28 pm

KatDaddy wrote:the Corpus AFD was indeed discussing the E Caribbean TW that fizzled over the last 24 hours. Invest 95L is still active for now.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Thanks for answering KatDaddy.

Anonymous · #29 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:Personally, I hope it goes away. I have too much to do yet before the start of the season!

No No No !! I hope it comes this way and hits the SE head on. We sure could use more rain around here, plus more action

Weatherboy1 · #30 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Welcome Weatherboy1 and elking.Hey Weatherboy1 you haved been in gobpi lowes board now known as storm2004 right?Glad to see you at storm2k and you will like it here as we have great discussions and plenty of anaylisis.About the wave if it mantains itself then when it passes 50w it may well be a big player.

I've been posting at the lowes board for a long while and finally got around to this site. Nice to see all the regulars and most well-informed folks around -- I'm looking forward to discussing this season's storms.

-Mike

#31 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:56 pm

I may not be right but our impressive tropical wave looks better than TD 1-C.

Josephine96 · #32 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:44 pm

That'd be interesting if a storm from Africa became a development this early

Matthew5 · #33 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:50 pm

It already looks like a tropical cyclone, just needs to redevelop some of that convection. With maybe some time to develop a little more closed LLCC by the Quickscats showing open on the northern quad. Otherwise by Quickscats standards this might be closed. :wink:

#34 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:27 pm

NOT STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM .....

stormchazer · #35 Postby **stormchazer** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:31 pm

Some interesting commentary and notes from Mark Sudduth at

http://hurricanetrack.com/

TROPICS BEGINNING TO HEAT UP
Take a look at the recent satellite photo below. It shows a well defined tropical wave just off the coast of Africa. This is by far the strongest wave of the season- but there are plenty more to come. The NHC mentioned this feauture on their morning outlook. The word from the NHC is that this wave will encounter only marginal conditions for development. Water temps out that far east are not quite warm enough yet to sustain deep thunderstorms. However, even if it does not develop right away, it needs to be watched since tropical waves that develop further west have more of a chance to hit land. I will certainly keep an eye on the global models to see if they pick up on this system or fizzle it out.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #36 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:14 am

Invest (95L): at 06/0600Z...
Position near 10.0N 22.0W (320 mi SE of Cape Verde)
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 06, 2004 5:35 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Now 95L is at the main site of NRL and by the way it is the only game in town around the world in the tropics.

#38 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 06, 2004 5:50 am

Looks like it's weakening now. Circulation isn't nearly as evident this morning. Convection seems farther removed to the west and southwest of what was the LLC yesterday. Next wave on the African coast looks pretty good, though.

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 06, 2004 6:22 am

It was expected that the wave would encounter not so ideal conditions in that part of the atlantic and we are seeing the results but let's see when it moves more west and reaches 50w where water temps are much warmer and shear is forecast to fade somewhat however the tutt trough still is hanging around in the western atlantic and caribbean.As you said Chris that wave behind 95L looks more healthy and is what the models are showing some development so we will see what happens.

Steve H. · #40 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Jul 06, 2004 7:12 am

I don't know, the disturbance looks pretty decent to me. I give better than even chances that it will develop, in a couple of days that is. It may get overrun by the wave behind it though; at least they may compete; which would not be good for development. :uarrow:

95L INVEST FOR EAST ATLANTIC WAVE

May not be too Early this Time

Steve is Correct

Re: Steve is Correct

Yep, that's me.

Who is online