Finally!!!!!!!!! Some action...

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The Dark Knight
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Finally!!!!!!!!! Some action...

#1 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:42 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURES AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

$$
I definately think that this wave has some big time potential.

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 17W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
15 KT. IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC TURNING IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 10N. TROPICAL CYCLONIC FORMATION HAS NOT BEEN KNOWN TO
OCCUR THIS FAR EAST IN THE ATLANTIC...THIS EARLY IN THE
HURRICANE SEASON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

If this thing holds together, NHC should send out the hurricane hunters... It will be interesting too watch...
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#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:44 pm

I thought the recon doesnt fly out that far. I thought they waited to the systems are atleast around 50 or 55 west.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:45 pm

Hurricane hunters dont go that far out.They start invests of the systems from 55w longitud westward.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:59 pm

It will be a great idea to have a RECON post in the Cape Verde Islands that will be investigating all the interesting tropical waves looking close to depressions coming the African coast.
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#5 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:04 pm

Sorry, I didn't know that RECON didn't fly out that far.. Thanks, now I do....
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#6 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:06 pm

The Dark Knight wrote:Sorry, I didn't know that RECON didn't fly out that far.. Thanks, now I do....


That's all right!!! :) We all are here to learn.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Rainband

#7 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:22 pm

wx247 wrote:
The Dark Knight wrote:Sorry, I didn't know that RECON didn't fly out that far.. Thanks, now I do....


That's all right!!! :) We all are here to learn.
exactly Garrett. BTW Welcome Dark knight :wink:
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kevin

#8 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:27 pm

Since the economic importance of west africa keeps increasing(read: oil) I'm kind of curious as to why RECON doesn't have a base there. It would turn out lots of valuable information too, I would assume, about these off of africa cyclones. Maybe some dust research for Derek. :)
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Matthew5

#9 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:30 pm

If the system can pull that convection. That western rainband is taking away from the center, back into the center. We might have something. We will have to wait in see!
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Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:41 pm

Maybe in a few years I will conduct a research project reconning these early June and July (sorry no later season storms) to see just how many of these features do in fact develop into tropical cyclones. I believe that the COA is quite favorable this time of year due to the monsoon trough. Its just that the systems die out as soona s the leave the trough and move into the influence of the SAL
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Josephine96

#11 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:46 pm

Maybe it'll still be intact when it gets close to 55W for the hunters
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kevin

#12 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:53 pm

:) Awesome to hear that Derek. West Africa isn't the most stable place in the world... where would you be based, Cape Verdes? Also, I remember when I was taking geography class (the teacher made us learn soviet union geography instead of exposing us to the real world of -stans, eastern europe, and so on) the Sahara was expanding southward. Is that still going on, and how might that contribute to the hurricane season?
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chadtm80

#13 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:55 pm

Just curious.. Where can I find out the avarage rainfall for the Cape Verdes Islands for this time of year?
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#14 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:02 pm

Recon is not based in the CV islands because the great majority of TC's are moving away from any land and are only a threat to shipping. I think the furthest east the HH send a det is to Barbados......MGC
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#15 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:19 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Just curious.. Where can I find out the avarage rainfall for the Cape Verdes Islands for this time of year?


http://www.wunderground.com/global/stat ... ml#History

This has precip..

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weathe ... m?CVXX0001
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Rainband

#16 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:26 pm

Matthew5 wrote:. That western rainband is taking away from the center, back into the center. We might have something. We will have to wait in see!
I am trying :lol:
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Derek Ortt

#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:34 pm

That possible project would not occur for at least 7-8 years
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