AVN DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:39 pm

As it's completely visible AVN develops a closed circulation with this tropical wave and move it in the west to WNW fashion during the next following days. Let see what happens but things looks to have started to warm up as we go closer to the heard of the hurricane season.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

#2 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:47 pm

Looks like the model is developing the wave behind this one...but the next full run is at 00Z...so we'll see what the globals have to say.

However...the QScat from earlier today (around 3PM EDT)...and yes...it's todays image...is very impressive with 3/4 of a closed circulation...much better defined than eariler today.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds32.png

It also suggests that the surface circulation is a couple of degrees to the west of my previous estimate and hence a little closer to the deep convection (Well...what used to be deep covection...it still needs another burst near the center to be a serious player).

MW

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:48 pm

Yes but it's not this wave being mentioned this evening.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/a ... /slp24.png
As you can see in this gif, the wave in question tonight is in the eastern caribbean, and this is the next vigorous wave that is currently over central africa now.
I mention in my area of interest this afternoon.
This is the one that may make it!! But, this one now in the EAtlc may also!!

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 7:55 pm

Ok, I may be crazy but am I seeing a 50 mph barb and several 45 mph ones near it? Is the rain messing these readings up that much or are we looking at a very serious player here?

Matthew5 · #5 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 8:05 pm

I saw that to vbhoutex. It looks good just needs to show it can hold covnection.

#6 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 8:24 pm

Have to say this is quite impressive that far in the east Atlantic for this time of year. But again the UL winds are marginal at best and SST's are also, not to say they are completely inhibitive but anything developing a LLC will struggle to maintain TC formation and could easily open back into a wave. The second wave currently over Africa may be the real player early on as the first wave probably won't amount to much more than a TD until the central/western Carib.

#7 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 9:10 pm

i think its got a good chance of development but its gonna struggle to survive as it moves west.

AVN DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION

AVN DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION

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