Bush campaign expects Kerry Surge

[Wnghs2007]

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/election/0604nation/06veep.html

Bush campaign expects Kerry surge

By KEN HERMAN
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/05/04

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, who could announce his choice of running mate this week, will lead President Bush by 15 points by the end of July, a top Bush campaign adviser predicts.

In a Monday memo to campaign leaders, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry will benefit from the "bounce" most presidential challengers receive as attention focuses on their party convention and vice presidential choice.

Speculation about that subject heated up Monday, as news agencies said Kerry had reportedly made his choice and could announce it as early as today. Kerry denied the reports.

"I've made no decision at this point in time, and I'm going to continue to keep it a private and personal process until I announce it publicly," he told WTAE radio in Pittsburgh.

Current polls show a dead heat between Kerry and Bush, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent-to-40 percent margin in early August, after the Democratic National Convention July 26-29 in Boston.

"We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said of Kerry in the memo.

Dowd also noted Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe had predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up 8 to 10 points following the convention.

Dowd told campaign officials that history shows a challenger always gets a "dramatic, if often short-lived" bounce from the convention and the selection of a running mate.

Speculation about Kerry's running mate has centered on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Kerry said last week the selection would be announced in an e-mail to supporters, but he would not say when it would go out.

Others still in the mix as possible running mates include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, though Biden downplayed his chances Monday.

"No one's done any vetting, any checking that I'm aware of," Biden told CNN outside his home in Wilmington, Del. "There's not a single thing that's occurred relative to the vice presidency and me that I'm aware of."

The Associated Press quoted two officials "close to the Kerry campaign" Monday who said Edwards interrupted a trip to Walt Disney World last week to meet with Kerry in Washington. But the officials cautioned about reading too much into the meeting, saying Edwards is not the only potential vice presidential candidate who has met covertly with Kerry.

On Monday, Kerry picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association, the nation's largest union. The Massachusetts senator got 86.5 percent of the assembly's votes. Bush had declined to participate in the NEA's endorsement process.

Kerry will speak to the NEA convention today.

"We believe John Kerry will work with educators to develop commonsense solutions to the challenges in America's classrooms, schools and communities," said Reg Weaver, NEA president.

The NEA endorsement means manpower and money in battleground states.

Kerry hosted an Independence Day picnic Monday near Pittsburgh that included supporters from three of those states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. He will stump in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, New York and Washington this week.

Bush, who will tour Pennsylvania by bus Friday, had no public events scheduled Monday. He went to a Secret Service training facility in Beltsville, Md., for a ride on his mountain bike.

[rainstorm]

it may be larger than 15 points. bush is doing absolutly nothing to counter what kerry or the press is saying. if all people hear is lies about bush, they will start believing them. the race may be over in another week

[GalvestonDuck]

Now I think I see where all your negativity is coming from. Are you starting to believe the lies too, Helen?

[Brent]

LOL Helen. You crack me up.

[rainstorm]

lots of other people are. edwards and kerry are out blasting bush on iraq and the economy.

[mf_dolphin]

In spite of your lamenting the polls are staying fairly consistent. The Dems will get a bounce through their convention and then things will settle down. The sky hasn't fallen Hellen

[chadtm80]

rainstorm it is quite trollish to post one way on one board (on another board you are saying this means victory for Bush) and then come here and post just the oposite.. Your postings are to do nothing but stir up arguments.

[Wnghs2007]

But, I was listening to Sean Hannity he said these are going to make you sick thru august. But that if you look at it Historically most Incumbents have been down by 15% by the time The Dem convention and veep are picked. But IN THE END. WE WILL COME OUT VICTORIOUS. AND NO BODY. CAN CONVINCE ME OTHER WISE. Like Bush Always says. There only polls and its still 4 months till election day.

[southerngale]

Rainstorm has just picked up a bad habit from observing Kerry too much...flip-flopping! Now cut it out RS!!

[Brent]

Rainstorm has just picked up a bad habit from observing Kerry too much...flip-flopping! Now cut it out RS!!

There was a game on the Price is Right today called "Flip-Flop" and I immediately thought of John Kerry.

[rainstorm]

ughh. bush has an ad on his website with mccain, but he isnt showing it nationally. does no good on a website. who is running his campaign?