...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS A WELL DEFINED
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-28W AND FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 23W-26W. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
HAS NOT BEEN KNOWN TO OCCUR THIS FAR EAST IN THE ATLANTIC SO
EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W/58W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE HAS
A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS LIMITED
CONVECTION. WHAT LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
N EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND APPEARS TO BE MORE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO AN UPPER LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO.
Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 06 JUL 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS A WELL DEFINED
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-28W AND FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 23W-26W. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
HAS NOT BEEN KNOWN TO OCCUR THIS FAR EAST IN THE ATLANTIC SO
EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W/58W MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE HAS
A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS LIMITED
CONVECTION. WHAT LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
N EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS AND APPEARS TO BE MORE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO AN UPPER LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W MOVING WEST
NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE IS POORLY DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS NOW WELL S OF
THE AREA WITH EARLIER CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO NOW OFFSHORE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N10W 13N20W 7N45W 9N70W. ASIDE FROM ACTIVITY
WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOVING OFF
THE SW COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
45W-50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GLFMEX IS COMPRISED OF
WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA TO THE CENTRAL
GLFMEX WHERE IT MERGES WITH A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE
LOUISIANA INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE TWO TROUGHS
SPLIT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORMING TWO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS...ONE OVER N FLORIDA AND THE SECOND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FURTHER N...A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE N GULF COAST W OF LOUISIANA PRODUCING A
MORE FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA NW TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. A WEAK
ELY DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE GLFMEX ALONG 85W IS MOVING AROUND
THE S PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING WITH IT ENHANCED LOWER TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY
LOWER TO MID LEVEL AIR IS MOVING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS AIRMASS IS UNUSUALLY DEVOID OF
CLOUDS/CONVECTION AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER EXTREME S
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE SE GLFMEX DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS FOCUSED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA NW OVER N GUATEMALA IS
ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W
OF 80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED OVER E PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND S PORTIONS
OF BELIZE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW 300 NM NE OF
PUERTO RICO EXTENDS A TROUGH WSW THROUGH 16N70W THEN NW OVER W
CUBA ALONG 23N81W. THIS FEATURE SEPARATES AN AREA OF SINKING
MOTION AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO THE N WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER E...A DEVELOPING AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST IN TANDEM WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW
ALONG 57W/58W. ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED N OF 15N IN
LINE WITH THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT.
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIES OVER THE W ATLC
S OF BERMUDA WHERE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N/30N. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXPAND EWD ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES...
REACHING BERMUDA BY TOMORROW MORNING. FURTHER E...THE
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS SPLIT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS
FORMING A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE UPPER LOWS IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N61W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRAILING WSW ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PRODUCE A DEVELOPING AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACK/POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE E ATLC OWING TO MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE E OF 40W AND A VERY STRONG SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...SAL...OUTBREAK E OF 50W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT AFRICAN DUST ACCOMPANIES THE SAL WITH LESSER
CONCENTRATIONS W OF 50W S OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SW THROUGH 27N55W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC WATERS ALLOWING MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
There are many features out theren that need to be watched, BIG TIME!!!! I have a feeling that this is going to be the Hurricane Seasons of big storms....Just my personal opinion.
