Today's 12Z GFS Run & Cape Verde System

[MWatkins]

This is as interesting as things get right now...The 12Z GFS run presents a rather ho-hum picture for the wave near Africa in 3 days time...but starts to close off a vorticity center down there around 35W or so...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072m.gif

By day 4 it's a little better developed:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096m.gif

By day 6...we've got a fairly significant system approaching the islands.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_144m.gif

A couple of caveats...

1. It's the GFS. As we well know it tends to spin everything up due to convective feedback in the model...although they have supposedly fixed some of that for this year.

2. Let's see if the other models start jumping on board...if the UKMET starts up with some development then things get a little more interesting...

MW

[HURAKAN]

After all, Interesting!
Something more, the steering pattern looks to be completely from east to west.

[Anonymous]

Latest UKMet doesn't close off anything but shows the wave moving through the islands and then the pressures in the Eastern Caribbean lower to around 1004mb http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be interesting to watch to see which scenario plays out. At this point with the MJO over the Atlantic and the ridge forecasted to weaken, this area that the GFS spins this up would be conducive and is an area in which we've seen TC development in the past at this point in the year.

[Trader Ron]

I will be shocked if it makes it across the pond.

[HURAKAN]

I will be shocked if it makes it across the pond.

If something happens, be careful with electricity.

[Trader Ron]

Okay ...stunned..lol...