TW at 20w 12n convective increase over water...........

[Rainband]

This one is already holding my interest more than any of the others has so far.

ditto I am sure you guys will watch this closely and keep us updated!!!

[Rainband]

Local mets are already touching on it.

[Hyperstorm]

The actual feature we must be keeping an eye on is not the convective blob near 20W, but the tropical wave itself which is still located near 10W in Africa. That system is ready to move off the coast later tonight and tomorrow by which time the convective blob should have weakened to allow for the heart of the system (still over Africa) to regenerate over water tomorrow. The convective blob near 20W is just that, a convective blob and nothing else. Don't expect development out of that. The real action starts tomorrow.

The impressive circulation about to move off the coast is very large and full of energy. Those are the kind of systems that I call "pumping fire machines waiting for gasoline to start-up". They are just made to develop if conditions are right.

Remember, the 1996 Hurricane Hortense pre-wave (just to name an example)? This wave makes me remember that system as it developed several squall lines that moved off the coast before the wave/low itself. That's how potent the circulation is.

As Dean said, the increase in convection over water is a good sign that conditions have changed since our last wave. That's definitely positive for this upcoming system.

Conditions resembling August in the E. Atlantic...

[Dean4Storms]

You could be right Hyper, this system is much larger and easily could be the GFS system it is forcasting near 50w in a few days.

[Derecho]

This TW is the first to actually have an increase in deep convection once it emerged over the Atlantic. This TW has more potential IMO of development than it's predecessor. Will have to watch to see if the convection persists, but it has done well for itself overnight.

The wave hasn't emerged over the Atlantic.

The vort center is fairly clear (devoid of convection) over eastern Guinea, and the surface pressure at Dakar is still dropping; if that convection was "the wave" it would be rising at Dakar.

Waves aren't defined by where the strongest blob of convection is.

Wind surges ahead of wave axes are routinely mistaken for the wave itself. This is probably one. Also upper level easterly shear is very strong, and it's causing the convection to be west of the wave.

[Derecho]

The actual feature we must be keeping an eye on is not the convective blob near 20W, but the tropical wave itself which is still located near 10W in Africa.

Conditions resembling August in the E. Atlantic...

Err, guess I should have read the second page before replying to Dean; you've already pointed out the actual wave hasn't left the coast yet.

However, there are some serious problems with Atlantic conditions...the ever-unpopular SAL. As Rhome notes in the latest TWD, there's huge amounts of it, and it's really, really, really, really, really dry.

[Dean4Storms]

This TW is the first to actually have an increase in deep convection once it emerged over the Atlantic. This TW has more potential IMO of development than it's predecessor. Will have to watch to see if the convection persists, but it has done well for itself overnight.

The wave hasn't emerged over the Atlantic.

The vort center is fairly clear (devoid of convection) over eastern Guinea, and the surface pressure at Dakar is still dropping; if that convection was "the wave" it would be rising at Dakar.

Waves aren't defined by where the strongest blob of convection is.

Wind surges ahead of wave axes are routinely mistaken for the wave itself. This is probably one. Also upper level easterly shear is very strong, and it's causing the convection to be west of the wave.

You are evidently correct Derecho as it seems this area is more of a ITCZ ocnvective area and not a TW, my bad. It will be interesting to see what occurs with the TW set to move off Africa over the next day and if the SAL was moistened somewhat by the previous TW.