NBC News Poll: Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney by 8

[FWBHurricane]

Kerry may be in the lead but Bush has the support of many states. Ranging from Florida up to West Virginia over to Arkansas, South Dakota down towards Arizona. ( this is from polls from different states ) The last time i saw..this is how it stood-

Bush States- Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia.

Kerry States- Oregon, California, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Rhode Island, Deleware, Conneticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine. ( This may not be accurate but from the last time i saw, it was like this. )

[TR]

sorry that is not what the memo says.... its 15 points after the edwards PICK.

You are a victim of spin... you see if its only a 8 or 11 point bounce the GOP can say edwards pick is great / good.

Hey Brent did you read that memo about Bush-Cheney expecting to be down by atleast 15 percentage points coming out of the convention. We this is it. Kerry is getting a short rapid bounce in front but by Late August it will be back to a dead heat.

[GalvestonDuck]

Bush States- Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia.

[Wnghs2007]

sorry that is not what the memo says.... its 15 points after the edwards PICK.

You are a victim of spin... you see if its only a 8 or 11 point bounce the GOP can say edwards pick is great / good.

Hey Brent did you read that memo about Bush-Cheney expecting to be down by atleast 15 percentage points coming out of the convention. We this is it. Kerry is getting a short rapid bounce in front but by Late August it will be back to a dead heat.

Wrong I have the memo right here my friend. As you should know I Am a Bush Volunteer so I get memos by email and have them from the Bush Site.

http://www.georgewbush.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=2893


Memo

As the post-primary season winds down and Kerry's VP selection and convention approach, I wanted to share with you what we should expect polls to show in early August.

An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.

As the below chart illustrates:

1. An average of the most recent public polls shows the race is a dead heat.

2. Assuming that Kerry enjoys the average "challenger's bounce[1]" (15.4% since 1976), we should expect the state of the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August.

Democrats themselves expect Kerry to have a sizeable lead after his convention. On Face the Nation on Sunday, DNC head Terry McAuliffe said, "We are about to pick our vice presidential nominee. We're about to go into a convention of four days and I think once we finish up our convention, I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from eight to twelve points up."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So As you can see it is after Convention. Not JUST the VP pick. Thanks

[Brent]

Here's an electoral college calculator. http://www.grayraven.com/ec/ Highlight the states for Bush in red, Kerry in blue, and it will tell you which candidate wins(270 is the magic number).

[Guest]

Here's an electoral college calculator. http://www.grayraven.com/ec/ Highlight the states for Bush in red, Kerry in blue, and it will tell you which candidate wins(270 is the magic number).

cool tool....I just gave Texas to the dems..lol

[Brent]

Here's an electoral college calculator. http://www.grayraven.com/ec/ Highlight the states for Bush in red, Kerry in blue, and it will tell you which candidate wins(270 is the magic number).

cool tool....I just gave Texas to the dems..lol

and I gave the whole Northeast to Bush. In fact, I gave every state to Bush.

[southerngale]

I don't think Bush & Co. will get much help at the convention even with their line up of speakers. Latest numbers of expected protesters is around 250,000. There will be a lot of coverage of this especially if it turns violent. Bloomberg is trying to keep them out of Central Park. Look back in the history books to Chicago 1968 and gain insight of what may happen in 2004.

Yeah, no doubt there will be a lot of coverage for the Bush protesters. I wonder how much coverage the Kerry protesters will get. Take notes.

[southerngale]

Here's an electoral college calculator. http://www.grayraven.com/ec/ Highlight the states for Bush in red, Kerry in blue, and it will tell you which candidate wins(270 is the magic number).

cool tool....I just gave Texas to the dems..lol

Yeah, good luck with that.