BIG problems with cold water in central Atlantic Ocean

[TR]

In case anyone missed it there are some real cold water problems.

While it is encouraging to see the impressive early July CV wave there are MUCH Bigger problems....

over the last 2 weeks a HUGE pool of very cold SSTA (sea surface temp anomalies) have developed over the western and central Atlantic ocean.

If you are a reader of Dr Dewpoint ( WSI's Joe D'Aleo) or JB then you know of the research that over the last 10 years has established a strong correlation between the Jet stream's Ridges and Trough position and large pools of cold and warm Ocean water temperatures.

In this particular case this pool of cold water will keep a trough over the central Atlantic for the rest of July--which displaces the WAR (western atlantic Ridge aka "The Bermuda High" ).

The BH is still there-- but with this large pool of cold SSTA it gets displaced to the west over---into the SE states and extends into the Midwest.

Here see for your self...
CURRENT OCEAN WATER TEMPS--- look at the ATLANTIC
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

APRIL 25TH
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/s ... 040425.gif

If you are hoping expectating or forecasting any early season development that is NOT in the caribbean / Gulf of Mexico... FORGET IT! You need to re-assess things.

[bahamaswx]

I see two main areas, both between 0.5-1C cooler than normal. Big deal.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much of any concern to me. See the latest loop I made from early May to today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/atlanticsst.gif

Temps across most of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, and that pocket of cool water in the subtropical Atlantic is already fading out.

[Rainband]

Thanks Chris!!!

[Anonymous]

Doesn't look like much of any concern to me. See the latest loop I made from early May to today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/atlanticsst.gif

Temps across most of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, and that pocket of cool water in the subtropical Atlantic is already fading out.

Agreed...NESDIS doesn't show much in the way of cool anomalies either. It looks like other parameters are less favorable for tc formation than SSTs.

[HURAKAN]

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES


SEA-SURFACE ANOMALIES

[Lindaloo]

In case anyone missed it there are some real cold water problems.

While it is encouraging to see the impressive early July CV wave there are MUCH Bigger problems....

over the last 2 weeks a HUGE pool of very cold SSTA (sea surface temp anomalies) have developed over the western and central Atlantic ocean.

If you are a reader of Dr Dewpoint ( WSI's Joe D'Aleo) or JB then you know of the research that over the last 10 years has established a strong correlation between the Jet stream's Ridges and Trough position and large pools of cold and warm Ocean water temperatures.

In this particular case this pool of cold water will keep a trough over the central Atlantic for the rest of July--which displaces the WAR (western atlantic Ridge aka "The Bermuda High" ).

The BH is still there-- but with this large pool of cold SSTA it gets displaced to the west over---into the SE states and extends into the Midwest.

Here see for your self...
CURRENT OCEAN WATER TEMPS--- look at the ATLANTIC
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

APRIL 25TH
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/s ... 040425.gif

If you are hoping expectating or forecasting any early season development that is NOT in the caribbean / Gulf of Mexico... FORGET IT! You need to re-assess things.

This post makes no sense to me.

[Anonymous]

This map says that the enitre atlantic basin, or all that could produce a storm that would threaten land areas, is ripe for TC formation... and most of the Atlantic, as well as all the Caribbean and all of the Gulf, able to support a cat 3 or higher storm

[TR]

Of course you maps are 7 day mean temps not ACTUAL SSTA

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES


SEA-SURFACE ANOMALIES

[TR]

First its about 3 degrees C colder than Normal -- thats 5 degrees F.

For mets would say that is SIGNIFICANT...
second the the impact of the cold water extended far beyond that actual SSTA per se...

The cold water pool is going to establish a fairly deep trough over the central Atlantic ocean. IF that pool stays there into AUG *** IF*** then CV systems COULD have a serious barrier to contend with.

Doesn't look like much of any concern to me. See the latest loop I made from early May to today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/atlanticsst.gif

Temps across most of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, and that pocket of cool water in the subtropical Atlantic is already fading out.

[USAwx1]

Of course you maps are 7 day mean temps not ACTUAL SSTA

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anal.gif

SEA-SURFACE ANOMALIES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anom.gif

There can be SUBTLE differences in how SSTA are represented depending on which site you visit. But as far as your cold pool goes, if anything this has been confined to the Far northwest Atlantic near NF and Nova Scotia (See Sandy's graphic) and the rest of the Atlantic is running normal to in some cases WELL ABOVE normal from the coast of Spain to near the Azores by as much as +2 DEG C

WARM SSTA surround Greenland and are still prevalent across the Equatorial Atlantic. So IF you were trying to insinuate that there has been a phase change in the ATC I would have to disagree, and strongly so.

[Aquawind]

Hi TR.. Take note those are maps directly from NHC.. The mean temps are a better judge of the water temps. The surface water temps are constantly fluctuating because of sunlight, winds, precip, upwelling..etc.. Even with clear skys for days and everthing constant the daylight alone causes the temps to fluctuate..so taking an actual temp reading of the whole basin at a particular time is not reasonable.. hence they use the mean..

[rainstorm]

it has been changing frequently

[MGC]

Unless there is major upwelling SST will be warm enough to support TC. I don't see any major SSTA in the tropical Atlantic that will preclude TC formation this season......MGC