Interesting

[DESTRUCTION5]

Accuweather has Tropical Storm force Conditions For SFL in ther 15 day Forecast(day13-15) for the WPB Area....Now that takes some Balls..

[CocoaBill]

Can you please provide a link? I would love to read that discussion!

[HURAKAN]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... ccuweather

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, how could they forecast that already? Better evacuate now before its too late

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... traveler=0

Click on Detail...It shows wind speeds Ect...

[CocoaBill]

The Detail link simply brings up an sample when I click it..... I dont have have a subscription....

Can you copy and paste the details to this forum?

[USAwx1]

Here's the reason why. Take a look at last nights 0z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 84_l.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 36_l.shtml

[GalvestonDuck]

Nope.

[vbhoutex]

The Detail link simply brings up an sample when I click it..... I dont have have a subscription....

Can you copy and paste the details to this forum?

If it is off of the pay site we do not allow that. It will be deleted.

[Trader Ron]

I don't think Accuweather has B****. I think they have a Crystal Ball. Nobody can forecast out Six days with any accuracy,much less Thirteen Days.

[USAwx1]

I don't think Accuweather has B****. I think they have a Crystal Ball. Nobody can forecast out Six days with any accuracy,much less Thirteen Days.

Yeah, they do, its a very CLOUDY crystal ball called the long range operational GFS aka Waffle-O-Matic

[Trader Ron]

Maybe it's Crystal Gale....

[Anonymous]

Yeah--all their 15 day forecasts are based on the GFS and last year it had hurricane force winds in Jacksonville on several occaisons in the 10-15 day timeframe including initial forecasts for Isabel... Never saw it

[HURAKAN]

I don't know, but sometimes forecasts done today for tomorrow fail, what would happen to the forecasts to 15 days from now. It's like the 120 hours forecast for a tropical cyclone.

[Aquawind]

I don't have a ACCU account but I would assume..this is simply a graphic depicting the GFS straightup..I don't ever wanna see that someone actually wrote forecast verbage for the public on such a thing..that would be total hype.. Those colorful graphics forecasts are like candyland stuff anyway..eye candy for money.. What's TWC got the their maps..prolly the same..if they go that far out..

[Anonymous]

I dont see the point in paying for weather info that you can get anywhere else for free--just because its "Candy coated". I tried the 30day trial last year and cancelled cuz its pretty but not worth payying money for. And Jb's videos are free.

[MWatkins]

I don't think Accuweather has B****. I think they have a Crystal Ball. Nobody can forecast out Six days with any accuracy,much less Thirteen Days.

Yeah, they do, its a very CLOUDY crystal ball called the long range operational GFS aka Waffle-O-Matic

There is one thing that really drew my attention...

Mmmmm....waffles.

That just suggests that the long-range forecasts are automated from the GFS data fields...as Aquawind noted.

I'm not taking a shot at JB here...this comment has nothing to do with him...only the company he works for...

Yet another reason why they are better known as "Slack-U-Weather".

MW

[USAwx1]

I don't think Accuweather has B****. I think they have a Crystal Ball. Nobody can forecast out Six days with any accuracy,much less Thirteen Days.

Yeah, they do, its a very CLOUDY crystal ball called the long range operational GFS aka Waffle-O-Matic

There is one thing that really drew my attention...

Mmmmm....waffles.

That just suggests that the long-range forecasts are automated from the GFS data fields...as Aquawind noted.

I'm not taking a shot at JB here...this comment has nothing to do with him...only the company he works for...

Yet another reason why they are better known as "Slack-U-Weather".

MW

I happen to really respect and admire JB ALOT, But Accuweather makes no sense. Ok fine, so they have a 15-day forecast, great, more power to them. But the base their forecast from the operational runs of the GFS. So, It would IMO be ALOT smarter to scale it back to maybe just a 7-10 Day. That would help reduce forecast error and improve skill. There is NO point in making a forecast that has very little chance of verifying just to say your organization has a 15-day outlook, or 15-day planner or whatever you would like to call it.

A forecast from 7-10 days out has a MUCH better chance of coming close to verifying than one from 15-days out based on the OP-GFS which will change w/ the next run of the model.

[Thunder44]

It's funny that Accu-weather gives a 5-day forecast on their site, which I agree is stupid, but on their tv and radio outlets here in NYC they don't give out more than 4 or 5 days.

[MWatkins]

I happen to really respect and admire JB ALOT, But Accuweather makes no sense. Ok fine, so they have a 15-day forecast, great, more power to them. But the base their forecast from the operational runs of the GFS. So, It would IMO be ALOT smarter to scale it back to maybe just a 7-10 Day. That would help reduce forecast error and improve skill. There is NO point in making a forecast that has very little chance of verifying just to say your organization has a 15-day outlook, or 15-day planner or whatever you would like to call it.

A forecast from 7-10 days out has a MUCH better chance of coming close to verifying than one from 15-days out based on the OP-GFS which will change w/ the next run of the model.

I hold a tremendous amount of respect for JB...he's as passionate as anyone about the tropics and is a pattern recognition guru...

I think it's the ultimate irony that the company that THINKS weather should be privatized (at the government's expense) is lifting their "cutting edge" 15 day forecast straight from a GOVERNMENT model that they get for free...

Ahhahahahahahaha!

MW