5:30pm Tropical Weather Outlook, possible TD forming

Website · #1 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:16 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL SURFACE
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE PERSISTS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS MINIMAL AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
$$

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:19 pm

No convection... No TD....

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:21 pm

It does not say a TD may be forming. It says that a TD may form. It refers to the future tense, there is no present participle to reflect that it is currently happening at the present time

kevin · #4 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:21 pm

Agreed. The system is convection starved. Lately there has been some discussion over whether the NHC upgrades systems too aggressively. I wouldn't exprect a named storm from this however. Maybe a depression, but its certainly not there yet.

kevin · #5 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:22 pm

Its not -ing, Derek says. I concur. No -ing happen-ing.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:25 pm

I agree Derek, and I uderstand they said may form... I was just noting the lack of convection at this time.. And FWIW I dont think she will ever make it

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:33 pm

chadtm80 wrote:I agree Derek, and I uderstand they said may form... I was just noting the lack of convection at this time.. And FWIW I dont think she will ever make it

It will be a HE, ALEX(if it develops of course). :wink:

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:43 pm

No convection no TD.

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:45 pm

I call them all "shes" unless they develop. lol..

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:49 pm

What the NHC needs is a ship report from that area to see if there are sufficient strong winds sustained to classifie it as a TD or a TS.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:56 pm

It has a convectionless spin much like the cape verde disturbance.... With any TD or TS, the main threat is usually heavy rain and thats not even a threat with this system yet.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:11 pm

It's looking pathetic.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #13 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:35 pm

chadtm80 wrote:I call them all "shes" unless they develop. lol..

...at one time they were all shes. They were named after the forecaster's wife or girlfriend, etc.

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:36 pm

Yep.. And I know why.. lol

5:30pm Tropical Weather Outlook, possible TD forming

5:30pm Tropical Weather Outlook, possible TD forming

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