15N 40W

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Rainband

15N 40W

#1 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:05 pm

Looks like the convection less swirl is gaining some convection. Albeit not much but may be a sign?? :roll:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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HURAKAN
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:10 pm

Very interesting, I continue to believe this system will do the same Danny last year did.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:13 pm

OMG!!! I think its developing an eye!!!!! lol :eek: JK

It does look like its trying to develop some storms NE of it if it could just persist. :roll:

Here is a more contiuous loop http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:13 pm

I think it's running into the shear.. :roll:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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#5 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:24 pm

Yes, could be shear induced convection. Guess time will tell. I love this lull :roll: :roll: Not :D
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:27 pm

And dont forget our party pooper friend Sal... Image
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... Asal-2.jpg
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:38 pm

Image

This image shows very well a low pressure system around 16N & 42.5 W, the low seems to be moving westward in the visible loops and the convection seems to be steared northeastward, which makes me believe the system is being sheared which should keep in check the system.
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 08, 2004 6:45 pm

True the system is being sheared now and moving into stronger shear--but if it goes north of the islands, shear is forecast to weaken briefly through 60 hours
Image
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still sticking to the same story

#9 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Jul 08, 2004 7:14 pm

I said yesterday that this wave is like one we saw last year in July -- looked great coming off of Africa but after a couple days of dry air and convection-less travel, it just fizzled out. If there is still a well-defined spiral heading west in 36 hours or so, then I'll reassess. But I'm betting that this thing's days are numbered. Also, there appears to be a persistent upper low in the vicinity of the Leewards (that would be the TUTT, right?) If this wave gets there and hasn't managed to organize itself, the associated shear from that feature could rip whatever is left apart. But with not much else going on in the Atlantic, it can't hurt to watch!
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#10 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 08, 2004 7:18 pm

I continue to believe this system will do the same Danny last year did.<<
No wave can really be compared to a hurricane. There is a difference between mysticism and science, and attributing personal characteristics to a disturbance would be one of them.

I don't know anything about this but......
Shear forecasts haven't demonstrated themselves very well in the time I've been following the tropics. So I take those forecasts very lightly.

-Kevin
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2004 7:19 pm

Yes Mike a tutt low NE of the islands.
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#12 Postby Tip » Thu Jul 08, 2004 7:54 pm

It is also caught in a dry pocket.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ical/5.jpg
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#13 Postby jabber » Thu Jul 08, 2004 8:03 pm

Lets see what happens west of 60
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