Next player just moving offshore Africa...

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Hyperstorm
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Next player just moving offshore Africa...

#1 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 08, 2004 10:26 pm

Anyone remember yesterday that we were talking about a tropical wave that was going to exit Africa last night and had a good chance of developing? Well, the tropical wave decided to pay for an additional night stay in the African continent, but is now ready to travel the waters of the Atlantic.

This tropical wave was looking rather impressive yesterday with a fairly potent circulation. Today, however, the system isn't quite as broad and/or potent. That being said, it is still quite a system plus this is the one wave that was forecast to develop by the GFS earlier.

Yesterday, strong convection developed over water in the E. Atlantic signaling perhaps more moisture availability over the area, something we hadn't seen this season. When the wave finally moves offshore tonight we'll see if in fact, convection persists and even strengthens over water as I would assume due to the better moisture levels.

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#2 Postby MWatkins » Thu Jul 08, 2004 11:17 pm

The axis of the wave is a little slower to move off than projected....but the 0Z GFS is backing off on development...at least through 96 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096m.gif

The runs aren't complete...but it looks like the only model advertising development is running away and hiding...for now.

It's only one run...but the GFS backing off is not a good sign for fans of development.

And with the MJO phase pulsing down over the next 2 weeks...we're probably not going to see the season opener before August...unless the system S of Bermuda comes back to life.

MW
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#3 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:49 am

MWatkins wrote:The runs aren't complete...but it looks like the only model advertising development is running away and hiding...for now.

It's only one run...but the GFS backing off is not a good sign for fans of development.

MW


That's the reason why I said that the GFS was forecasting development earlier. I know it's only one model, but it makes you be more alert to finding out what's going to happen.

In terms of development, I don't think it will develop immediately, but it could do something as it moves further west across the Atlantic later on. In fact, this morning, convection doesn't seem to hold together, so no imminent development.

However, no imminent development doesn't mean we have to stop monitoring its progress...
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