Interesting

[USAwx1]

It's funny that Accu-weather gives a 5-day forecast on their site, which I agree is stupid, but on their tv and radio outlets here in NYC they don't give out more than 4 or 5 days.

Let's be clear about something here .. I respect and admire all of the forecasters at Accuweather, they employ some of the best in the business today. We even have one here on the board as well. They are deserving of every bit of credit they get. What i do not agree with is their 15-day forecast.

The Accuwx professional site (paysite) has virtually everything one could imagine and IMO worth your money. Infact they just added the Canadian and JMA models to the list. It's cheaper than wright-weather and offers plenty more. Also give the radar plus a try. I REALLY thought that was a pretty cool package.

[USAwx1]

I happen to really respect and admire JB ALOT, But Accuweather makes no sense. Ok fine, so they have a 15-day forecast, great, more power to them. But the base their forecast from the operational runs of the GFS. So, It would IMO be ALOT smarter to scale it back to maybe just a 7-10 Day. That would help reduce forecast error and improve skill. There is NO point in making a forecast that has very little chance of verifying just to say your organization has a 15-day outlook, or 15-day planner or whatever you would like to call it.

A forecast from 7-10 days out has a MUCH better chance of coming close to verifying than one from 15-days out based on the OP-GFS which will change w/ the next run of the model.

I hold a tremendous amount of respect for JB...he's as passionate as anyone about the tropics and is a pattern recognition guru...

I think it's the ultimate irony that the company that THINKS weather should be privatized (at the government's expense) is lifting their "cutting edge" 15 day forecast straight from a GOVERNMENT model that they get for free...

Ahhahahahahahaha!

MW

There is model information which they DO have to pay for to get Such as the ECMWF and for those who are lucky enough to have access to the ECMWF ensembles. it is HUGE expense.

[MWatkins]

There is model information which they DO have to pay for to get Such as the ECMWF and for those who are lucky enough to have access to the ECMWF ensembles. it is HUGE expense.

I bet. And I'm sure it's worth every penny.

To be sure...I am not criticizing anyone who works for Accuweather specifically. My beef is they want the governement to step aside so they can take over the forecasting gig...but still have the government (i.e. us taxpayers) foot the bill for things such as recon flights.

Now...I suppose if I were building my own weather company that would be the way to go...I'm not exactly thrilled with the way things are with the whole "one voice" policy.

But I think the approach...is...well...awfully presumptive. If they are lifting the GFS...it's kind-o-funny.

MW

[USAwx1]

There is model information which they DO have to pay for to get Such as the ECMWF and for those who are lucky enough to have access to the ECMWF ensembles. it is HUGE expense.

I bet. And I'm sure it's worth every penny.

To be sure...I am not criticizing anyone who works for Accuweather specifically. My beef is they want the governement to step aside so they can take over the forecasting gig...but still have the government (i.e. us taxpayers) foot the bill for things such as recon flights.

Now...I suppose if I were building my own weather company that would be the way to go...I'm not exactly thrilled with the way things are with the whole "one voice" policy.

But I think the approach...is...well...awfully presumptive. If they are lifting the GFS...it's kind-o-funny.

MW

I agree with you Mike. They want to be able to issue watches, warnings, and advisories. As far as Im concerned, and maybe it's personal Bias, that should be left up to the NWS as it is now.

I've thought many times about going into business myself, but I really Don't have the finances to do so right now.

My beef is they want the governement to step aside so they can take over the forecasting gig...but still have the government (i.e. us taxpayers) foot the bill for things such as recon flights.

And STILL pay for the services b/c they are a private org. In other words it's like Double dipping and completely WRONG.

WRT recon flights, model runs, and other things i summarize it like wanting the cow's milk for free but not wanting to buy the cow to get it. IF that makes sense.

[wxman57]

I don't believe that any human actually sees those forecasts. It's a straight decoding of model data. If the GFS shows a TS in south Florida at 384 hours (as it did yesterday), then the 15-day forecast is for TS winds in Florida. Note that today the GFS dropped that system, so the Palm Beach forecast will change significantly.

As for the model data on Accuweather's site, it's pretty low-res stuff. I'd certainly never use most of their models operationally. We get the full data sets and run GARP to display quite a bit more detail. We do buy the full-resolution ECMWF, and it is NOT cheap.

[PTPatrick]

I have had the same things go on it wintee. The long range is a computer generated forecast based on GFS. I live on the coast east of new orleans and quite frequently during winter i will see ice and snow depicted 15 days out...but it mysteriously disappears when you reach the closer time frames.

Once when I was still in Florida though...it showed that Tallahassee would have a low of 8 degreess...a couple weeks later one of the biggest cold snaps in FL history brought lows in the low teens down to Tallahasee(this was the winter of 02-03...anybody remember the ocean-effect snow flurries on Daytona Beach from that same episode)

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'll put $100.00 against it. Anyone want to raise me?

[Guest]

Yep as of now the forecast is back to just plain ole hot & humid stuff.

Accu Weather is not very "Accu" to publish a long range forecast like that based on a model run that changes more often than my wife's mood & hair color.Its really ridiculous,misleading & unprofessional to forecast TS conditions that far out in advance.

I don't see why anyone would spend their hard earned money on signing up for that garbage.Stick to your local NWS office or NHC if want true "Accu Weather",& its free!

[Opal storm]

That's accuwx for ya!We're only 1 month into the season now and do you wanna guess how many clouds in the caribbean JB has already forecasted to develop into a hurricane??? Accuwx is full of hype,in January I could not tell you how many times they forecasted snow for Pensacola,it only snows here like every 10 years,not every couple of days