Disturbed Area Over The Yucatan

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TS Zack
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Disturbed Area Over The Yucatan

#1 Postby TS Zack » Fri Jul 09, 2004 10:46 am

Their is a Tropical Wave over the Western Carribean and the Yucatan Peninsula. Any information on where this might end up and maybe could form. Models take it towards Mexico but it looks to be moving more north. Any comments?
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:00 am

Well the TWO does mention the wave..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.


That pretty much sums it up..it's pushing moisture northward but the energy is moving westward..
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:05 am

Image
Upper level winds over the Western Gulf of Mexico are unfavorable for something to spin-up. But if something spin-up and wants to survive it will have to move toward the Eastern Gulf of Mexico which is more favorable for development.

Image
The 24-hour Wind Shear Tendency Analyses shows us the same, Unfavorable in the WGOM, more favorable in the EGOM.
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#4 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:06 am

keep dreamin Zack its moving west toward S. TX, and I think it may be me that's dreaming, that is, dreaming of swells from the south rapping around S. Padre's jetty :D


and if my thread is going nowhere, then please explain why the wave models are forcasting some serious winds. Is a low pressure going to cruise across north texas and crank up the s. winds along the Tx coast?
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#5 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:51 am

Do watch the shear tendency, however, because the shear is decreasing across portions of the western Gulf over the last 24 hours.
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#6 Postby Derecho » Fri Jul 09, 2004 12:40 pm

It's going to form....

The south end, that is, in the Eastern Pacific...already an elongated sfc circ...

Horrible shear from an ULL in the Gulf/Carib...

And the convection has increased because of the ever-popular divergent shear on the SE side of an upper low.
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jul 09, 2004 2:37 pm

correct Redder! Nice to have you back somebody from my neck of the woods. lol
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#8 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:38 pm

The tropical wave is starting to look impressive as it is exiting off the yucatan.
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#9 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:40 pm

Man that Yucatan is looking pretty this afternoon, the visible satellite shows some impressive convection, so are we going to get something forming in the Bay of Campeche? And howdy there Thunder n Lightin I love slang talkin.
Last edited by Guest on Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:40 pm

What is the forecast for the ULL???
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#11 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:42 pm

The ULL seems like its moving towards the southwest out of the way.
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#12 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:42 pm

wx247 wrote:What is the forecast for the ULL???


ask Derecho he seems to have some input about the ULL.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:26 pm

Interesting .... everything in the Gulf of Mexico is pushing northwestward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#14 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:30 pm

Conditions doesnt look that bad for development. Even though they have the ULL in the western gulf.
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#15 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Interesting .... everything in the Gulf of Mexico is pushing northwestward.

Also interesting...is the area of convection currently moving southwestward, parallel to the Texas coast.
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#16 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:43 pm

Even though theres no type of circulation, it still looks impressive

Image
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#17 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:45 pm

From th e5:30 TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Image
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#19 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:49 pm

Watching that band moving northeastward toward the Florida peninsula, no matter what it does. :)
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#20 Postby MortisFL » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:54 pm

I doubt it will make it to FL
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