Disturbed Area Over The Yucatan

[Anonymous]

That ULL off the TX coast appears to be moving outta the way
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... lat=goes12
Wind shear is not forecasted to become real favorable in the Gomex though for the next 3 days http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[HURAKAN]

Today we have only seen an overwhelm quantity of convection developed over the Yucatan Peninsula that is associated to the wave, now if the convection persists over the next 24 hours and moves over water then something may happen, but at this point is not time to get too excited.

[wx247]

We are officially on the blob watch now... no matter what happens with this system!

[Rainband]

Time will tell. NOGAPS has it moving west into Mexico!!

[ColdFront77]

I doubt it will make it to FL

I am talking about the band moving northeastward, not the convectin itself.....

Watching that band moving northeastward toward the Florida peninsula, no matter what it does.

[Steve H.]

Yeah I'd watch that blob. If the ULL is backing west it could actually ventilate a LLL if one should form. The shape of tht blob would make me a bit nervous if I was in the western GOM states

[HURAKAN]

Time will tell. NOGAPS has it moving west into Mexico!!

But the disturbance or a closed low pressure.

[Aquawind]

Today we have only seen an overwhelm quantity of convection developed over the Yucatan Peninsula that is associated to the wave, now if the convection persists over the next 24 hours and moves over water then something may happen, but at this point is not time to get too excited.

Well said Sandy

Persistant Deep Convection over water...

[Thunder44]

I'm not going to get all excited about this one yet. It's looks good now, but much of it is still over land and the blobs seem to pulse up good and than die down. I suspect it may look "different" tomorrow morning.

[Aquawind]

I'm not going to get all excited about this one yet. It's looks good now, but much of it is still over land and the blobs seem to pulse up good and than die down. I suspect it may look "different" tomorrow morning.

Tonight Poof...

Tomorrow a micro blob..

[Derecho]

This is somewhat similar to the much ballyhoed "INVEST" of some weeks ago, though this has very limited chances of even being an "INVEST."

(What happened back then is a wave was sheared horribly by the SE side of an upper low, but it was divergent shear that caused a lot of convection, but then the ULL ITSELF (as they very rarely do)actually began to begin to form, though it ultimately failed.

In this case, literally the reason the convection is firing up is BECAUSE OF THE BAD SHEAR. It's the ULL causing it.

I don't see any indication on the models this ever gets favorable UL conditions in the fairly brief time it would ever have over water.

And based on the models and the way things are shaping up the EPAC thing is MUCH closer to forming something; and the outflow from that would still horribly affect this wave.

The current surface pressure in Merida, Yucatan, is 1015 mb. This is purely upper-level based stuff. It's not remotely close to being anything.


And of course on the satellite right now you can see outflow-boundaries galore shooting out from it to the West; that's a terrible indication for tropical development, and reflective of the poor conditions for it.

[Thunder44]

The convection seems to be already pulsing down on the north side

[Rainband]

Time will tell. NOGAPS has it moving west into Mexico!!

But the disturbance or a closed low pressure.

at the time the run intialized a blob of convection. If a low forms...it may be a different story. Time will tell

[Anonymous]

Well it is 3:00A.M. and the blob is still a blob and a deep shade of orange red if I may say so myself. Maybe it will give us something to watch today. I didn't see how big the blob was this afternoon but it really doesn't look to bad right now.