Interesting Article from Miami Herald about Florida

[JPmia]

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/9111835.htm

Let's hope this high pressure area moves...any thoughts?

[Aquawind]

Yep..it's not funny..

[Opal storm]

With all the wildfires down there,Miami almost needs a hurricane.

[Anonymous]

Rather ominous report for S Fla
It says something IMHO when a NWS employee sees it as serious enough to rush his roof repairs...

How deep? Well, put it this way: Lushine, who lives in Pembroke Pines, has been hurrying to complete roof repairs -- enduring heat that is bringing misery to South Floridians and has tied or approached record levels.

[Weatherboy1]

... now all you need is a spark to cause real problems down here in South FL. That's unfortunate, to say the least. I remember there was a story in the Palm Beach Post back in May, too, talking about how very dry Mays tend to presage a hurricane hit. Of the 15 driest Mays, there were storm hits in 12 of them (or something like that -- I probably have the exact numbers off). You never know, I suppose. But I'll definitely be watching any developing CV storms closely. I'm thinking we probably won't see anything until August at this point, however, as that wave east of the Windwards has really lost its definition.

[Trader Ron]

If this were the middle of August,I would be really concerned. Lets see if the High is still in place next month.

[MWatkins]

If this were the middle of August,I would be really concerned. Lets see if the High is still in place next month.

Good point. The steering level for hurricanes...usually measured at 500MB...looks like this now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

During next week...a trough is going to sweep off the US East Coast and knock that ridge down...so that anything approaching the EC would be harmlessly deflected away:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144m.gif

Although long range projections will lift the trough out and we'll be back to the same regime.

I have a long...rather detailed take on this article that I'm saving for a later time...but your point is a very good one. Let's see what happens in August.

MW

[Aquawind]

I have a long...rather detailed take on this article that I'm saving for a later time...but your point is a very good one. Let's see what happens in August.

WHAT!! Your holding back?...

[Weatherboy1]

It's weird to talk about a SE FL hit simply because of this fact: Even though our insurance is through the roof and everyone assumes we are "cane central," history tells a different story.

Case in point: I was born here in 1975. The ONLY direct hit in my part of FL (NE Palm Beach County) since I was born was hurricane David in 1979, and even that was a glancing blow. The 'cane was a Cat. 4 (I think) when it plowed into Hispanola, but then it started recurving and only glanced the northern end of PBC with 75/80 mph winds. When hurricane Andrew hit, fortunately (for me, at least), it was an extremely small storm. So while it devastated south Dade, it was only a 40-mph, 3 hours without power "nothing" storm up here. Floyd recurved 100 miles to the east and Irene was nothing more than a tropical storm in this neck of the woods (I believe PBIA recorded peak winds of 53 mph). This isn't to say I don't worry about 'canes all the time. But the simple fact is, our luck has been very VERY good over the almost 30 years of my life. Things may certainly change now that we're in a more active multi-decade cycle. But people like me, unfortunately, probably won't believe it until we've had a strike every couple of years.

[MWatkins]

I have a long...rather detailed take on this article that I'm saving for a later time...but your point is a very good one. Let's see what happens in August.

WHAT!! Your holding back?...

Gotta leave something to talk about for my first show...

MW

[Trader Ron]

If i had to make a bet,(small one) i think the High will move North in time. We'll see.

[Orlando_wx]

If I 'm not mistakin wxman57 talked about this scenerio several times in other threads about the climate changing to where storms may not always turn away like they have been in the past and now it seems to have happen that way for now.

John