Will preseason forecasts from the pros be downgraded?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 8:00 am

Yeah I know that many will say Luis it is still early but the question of this thread is IF july stays inactive and no storms form then DR Gray,Noaa and other organizations and then many of us who also all haved predicted an active season may have to downgrade the numbers a little bit.Those forecasts on average go between 12-14 named storms.It has to be a very active august(5)named systems,september(6)named systems and october(3)named systems to then reach an active season criteria.Two main factors IMO haved been the cause of the Atlantic Basin being inactive so far and those are the TUTT trough still hanging on in the atlantic and caribbean as many upper lows are moving around and creating an unfavorable enviroment,Also another factor is the SAL or (SAHARAN AIR LAYER) which has capped most of the tropical atlantic and supressing somewhat the ITCZ.The question is if the TUTT will weaken as we enter the heart of the season and if the SAL factor will be less of a factor comming the peak.I guess that time will tell if those 2 factors will make the season less active than predicted before the season started or the season will behave in a normal way.The statictics show that in many of the past seasons the first named storm has formed in august so let see how this 2004 season does in terms of when the first storm will form.

Any comments are welcomed.

#2 Postby **Trader Ron** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 8:15 am

Luis,

It's still pretty early. With that said,I do believe they will lower their numbers in August.

Mine are 12/6/2. But i'm always on the low side.

rainstorm · #3 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 8:17 am

the pacific sst's are warming some too

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 8:19 am

Trader Ron wrote:Luis,

It's still pretty early. With that said,I do believe they will lower their numbers in August.

Mine are 12/6/2. But i'm always on the low side.

Yes it is still early but the question is if july doesn't have a named storm then what will happen with all the forecasts.I haved seen some of the members who haved posted in my thread of forecasts 15-16 named systems.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 8:20 am

It's only the 10th of July :wink:

Derecho · #6 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:42 am

cycloneye wrote:Yeah I know that many will say Luis it is still early but the question of this thread is IF july stays inactive and no storms .

This part of July is actually less active than June.

In and of itself, it's not going to affect the seasonal forecasts at all.

CV season doesn't start till about a week into August.

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:44 am

Well, it was only a matter of time until people starting posting if this season was a bust.

Geez... we're 40 DAYS into the season. We have over 130 left.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:52 am

A slow start does NOT mean a slower season. In fact, I can name several hyperactive seasons where the first named storm didn't develop until sometime after July 15...1950, 1955, 1961, 1969, and 1998. And these are just the seasons with a NTC value greater than 150%...other lesser but still active seasons with slow starts include 1963, 1980, 1988, and 2000. There's no reason for CSU or NOAA to downgrade their numbers come August...doing so just because of the lack of any named storms so far would be completely foolish.

HURRICANELONNY · #9 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:27 am

Geez. I thought you for one would not be bitching about a slower season already, cycloneye. You heard of the Bell curve. If not, take a close look at it and see how many named storms in the past 120 years formed in July. First of all I got a little fear factor going this year in regards to landfalling Hurricanes. Especially Florida and not because I live here but because of the pattern that has set up. There could be some major devastation this year and I don't want to be part of it. Sure, like you and the rest of us, I wish for twenty named storms this year with a good soaking here in Florida but that's all. No Devastation.

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:29 am

Remember, in 1995, there were 14 named storms (and 2TD's) from August on...

Code: Select all

6 Tropical Depression #6    05-07 AUG      30 1001   -
 7 Hurricane FELIX           08-17 AUG     115  950   4
 8 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE  09-12 AUG      60  988   -
 9 Hurricane HUMBERTO        22 AUG-01 SEP  90  970   2
10 Hurricane IRIS            22 AUG-04 SEP  95  965   2
11 Tropical Storm JERRY      22-25 AUG      35 1003   -
12 Tropical Storm KAREN      26 AUG-03 SEP  45 1000   -
13 Hurricane LUIS            28 AUG-11 SEP 120  936   4
14 Tropical Depression #14   11-13 SEP      30 1009   -
15 Hurricane MARILYN         12-22 SEP     100  949   3
16 Hurricane NOEL            27 SEP-07 OCT  65  987   1
17 Hurricane OPAL            27 SEP-05 OCT 130  916   4
18 Tropical Storm PABLO      05-07 OCT      50  998   -
19 Hurricane ROXANNE         07-20 OCT     100  958   3
20 Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN  20-24 OCT      35 1004   -
21 Hurricane TANYA           27 OCT-02 NOV  75  974   1

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:23 pm

Another thing...Cycloneye, you said the cause of the inactivity so far has been a strong TUTT and strong SAL outbreaks. It's completely normal for these 2 factors to inhibit development at this time of the year. However, they really only have an effect on activity in the Mean Development Region and eastern Caribbean Sea, where we normally don't see development this early in the first place. Therefore, you can't blame the TUTT and SAL for no named storms so far...it has more to do with atmospheric patterns in the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Atlantic when we're talking about June and early July development.

rainstorm · #12 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:06 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

looks like the pacific is warming. if that trend contiues shear could be huge in aug/sept

#13 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:21 pm

I think we'll see 3-4 storms in August, 5-6 in September, and 3-4 in October/November. Right on track for about 12-14 storms. May even have one sneak in this month. I'm not concerned about the slow start. Some of the analog years (like 1980) didn't have a storm until late July or August. It's not normal to have a storm before August, acutally. Only in about 50% of the seasons is there a June or July storm.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:27 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Geez. I thought you for one would not be bitching about a slower season already, cycloneye. You heard of the Bell curve. If not, take a close look at it and see how many named storms in the past 120 years formed in July. First of all I got a little fear factor going this year in regards to landfalling Hurricanes. Especially Florida and not because I live here but because of the pattern that has set up. There could be some major devastation this year and I don't want to be part of it. Sure, like you and the rest of us, I wish for twenty named storms this year with a good soaking here in Florida but that's all. No Devastation.

I only am posting this for the HH forum to continue to talk about something and be active while we wait for Alex to form as I know that june and july are slow months.

rainstorm · #15 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:54 pm

el nino may be forming, and fast

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:06 pm

rainstorm wrote:el nino may be forming, and fast

Cyclone posted this link on El Nino a couple days ago....
Says Enso will remain neutral through the end of 2004 so El Nino Cancel :wink:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

rainstorm · #17 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:13 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:
rainstorm wrote:el nino may be forming, and fast

Cyclone posted this link on El Nino a couple days ago....
Says Enso will remain neutral through the end of 2004 so El Nino Cancel
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

but the pacific has been warming

Derecho · #18 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:27 pm

rainstorm wrote:el nino may be forming, and fast

Ah, finally had to return to character :-)

The Cenpac is warming some because of the neg SOI burst. To meet ENSO criteria it would have to stay warm for three months.

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:35 pm

rainstorm wrote:el nino may be forming, and fast

Welcome back Rainstorm. :hehe:

#20 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:42 pm

I am not concerned in the least. I'd say we are observing a fairly normal early season. You guys have just been spoiled by the early season activity of late. Things will start heating up in a couple of weeks....MGC

Will preseason forecasts from the pros be downgraded?

Will preseason forecasts from the pros be downgraded?

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