1953,1980 good analog years for 2004?

[cycloneye]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1953.asp

Will 2004 be similar to 1953 when 14 systems formed or it will be other years besides 1953.You can see that in 1953 the season had it's first storm on may 25 but then there was a quiet period until august 11 when the second system formed and from that point it was an active season that was a very late ending one.Notice at link above that the CV season was benign in that year compared to other seasons like 1980 for example which the CV season was very active with powerful hurricane Allen leading that season.Let's have comments about this.1980 link

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1980.asp

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmmmmm.........

[Anonymous]

1953 was also the best analog we could come up with...1980 was another one of our analogs too.

[wxman57]

According to Dr. Gray, the best analog years for 2004 would be:

1953
1969
2001
2003

That list was revised from his April forecast of:

1958
1961
1980
2001

I'm not sure why he made the switch in May to 1953, 1969, 2001, and 2003. It wasn't clear in his discussion.

[Anonymous]

1953 is one of our analog years for this season...so I expect a similar general track pattern. In fact, it really showcases our forecast of a high eastern GOM / FL Panhandle threat. However, there's a small but important difference between this year and 1953...it had a borderline weak El Nino present. Activity as a whole was therefore slightly suppressed to about 120% NTC...and regionally, formation in the Mean Development Region was somewhat reduced, though more storms formed further west closer to land. Since ENSO should be neutral at the peak this year, rather than weak El Nino...we'll probably see more development east of the Windward Islands and fewer homegrown systems than observed that year.

And 1980 is also one of our analog years. In terms of Mean Development Region activity, I expect 2004 to more closely mirror 1980 since it had a generally neutral ENSO during the peak as well. However, you may notice a different GOM track pattern that year...all 4 GOM storms (Allen, Danielle, Hermine, and Jeanne) were steered westward towards TX and MX. This can be explained by a persistent strong ridge of high pressure that was present over the Central Plains that spring and summer...which resulted in a strong easterly steering flow over the GOM that season. THIS year, the ridge has been focused more in the Southeast...with a weakness further west...more akin to 1953. Yes, patterns can fluctuate and even change, so it doesn't mean the western GOM is out of the woods...especially if a named storm actually forms there. Likewise, it doesn't mean the eastern GOM will get hammered. But IMO the chance is greater for a FL Panhandle hurricane landfall than a TX one this season.

[Aquawind]

SST's musta been warm in 1980 for Ivan to develop at 34N 20W..

Other than Allen it looks like 1980 was by far less damaging..1953 was a florida hotspot..

[Anonymous]

SST's musta been warm in 1980 for Ivan to develop at 34N 20W..

SSTS were warmer than average...

http://independentwx.com/65.5.210.157.191.19.37.6.png

[Anonymous]

Lets hope this season is not like 1969

[HurricaneBill]

Lets hope this season is not like 1969

Two hurricanes struck the U.S. that year.

Hurricane Camille struck the Gulf Coast as a Category 5.

Hurricane Gerda struck Maine as a Category 2.

Hurricane Francelia struck Central America as a Category 3 and killed 100.

Hurricane Martha made a rare landfall on Panama as a TS.

[cycloneye]

Any more comments about the analog years for 2004?

[alicia-w]

My understanding of "analog" is obviously of a very different context than you're using here. What does it mean when talking about hurricanes and years? (thanks)

[cycloneye]

I know that a better expert than me can answer your question strait foward about analog years and hurricanes.

[Anonymous]

My understanding of "analog" is obviously of a very different context than you're using here. What does it mean when talking about hurricanes and years? (thanks)

Analog years are basically years in the past where atmospheric conditions and the hurricane-influencing factors resemble what is forecasted this year.