Seasonal Landfall Location Forecasts

[BayouVenteux]

During the last 4 or 5 years, there have been a number of individuals, both professional and amateur, who on their websites have regularly posted seasonal predictions highlighting specific geographic regions of the Caribbean/North American coastlines they believe to be most susceptible to tropical cyclone landfalls. I am curious if anyone has begun to undertake an objective comparitive study of their methodology and verification. Granted, seasonal landfall location forecasting is certainly a pursuit that is in its infancy, but if proven over time to have a fairly decent degree of accuracy, could prove a useful tool to emergency management officials and energy concerns. Obviously, there are also some negatives that come to mind, the first of which is public complacency in areas deemed unlikely to see a tropical cyclone landfall duing a particular season.

It would be great to hear some opinions from some of the professionals and well-versed enthusiasts on this board regarding the validity and potential use of this emerging realm of forecasting, and any links to sites of individuals or groups currently producing seasonal geographic landfall
forecasts would be appreciated as well.
thanks!

[Derecho]

I'd be interested in such a study.

I personally feel that, at this moment, they're fairly useless, and I frankly don't pay much attention to them (as equally useless as the forecast for Northeastern US snowfall that pollute other weather boards incessantly throughout every Spring, Summer, and Fall) but it's worth pursuing, and may be useful in 5-10 years.

The factors that go into landfalls are so random they may defy prediction; predicting storm totals in a basin is much, much, much easier.

[MWatkins]

During the last 4 or 5 years, there have been a number of individuals, both professional and amateur, who on their websites have regularly posted seasonal predictions highlighting specific geographic regions of the Caribbean/North American coastlines they believe to be most susceptible to tropical cyclone landfalls. I am curious if anyone has begun to undertake an objective comparitive study of their methodology and verification. Granted, seasonal landfall location forecasting is certainly a pursuit that is in its infancy, but if proven over time to have a fairly decent degree of accuracy, could prove a useful tool to emergency management officials and energy concerns. Obviously, there are also some negatives that come to mind, the first of which is public complacency in areas deemed unlikely to see a tropical cyclone landfall duing a particular season.

It would be great to hear some opinions from some of the professionals and well-versed enthusiasts on this board regarding the validity and potential use of this emerging realm of forecasting, and any links to sites of individuals or groups currently producing seasonal geographic landfall
forecasts would be appreciated as well.
thanks!

I'm not sure which thread now...but we had a rather protracted discussion about a week ago on this topic...ah...now I have to find it...

Here it is...there are a ton of posts...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=32509

I'm working on a scheme to overlay climatology against these forecast regions to compare relative skill vs climo. One thing I am running into is that the geography at the region level is going to be different from forecaster to forecaster. I'll bump this up on my priority list...if anyone has already done this work please share...

MW

[BayouVenteux]

Mike:
Thanks for the link to the topic and associated posts. I was with family enjoying some long-anticipated vacation time in the NW Caribbean that week and was on forced hiatus from all things instant and electronic.

BTW, just want to let you know that like many others on this board, I greatly appreciate your insights, expertise and the respectful manner in which you share them with others less versed (like yours truly!) but eager to learn more about tropical meteorology. Dittos for the S2K staffers and posters too numerous to mention that make this such a terrific website.