Something to watch today........

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Dean4Storms
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Something to watch today........

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jul 12, 2004 7:09 am

A weak surface trough extending from S. Car. down to over northern FL has moved out over the NE GOM and convection has begun to refire this AM. UL conditions are near perfect as a UL ridge is in place. Also SST's here are very warm, 84-86 degrees. I know this is jumping on something a bit early, but it is the most interesting game today. :wink:
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caneman

#2 Postby caneman » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:02 am

Very nice blow up.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none
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#3 Postby alicia-w » Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:10 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Here's a loop. I dont think I've ever seen anything that large move that direction before. Is that uncommon?
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#4 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:07 am

Interesting mess I must say.
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rbaker

ne gulf t storms

#5 Postby rbaker » Mon Jul 12, 2004 9:19 am

looks impressive but buoys indicate no pressure drops, and would have to see persitance in the area. On the positive side upper ridge is in place and water temps 100 miles off of bayport fl are around 87 degrees :roll:
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#6 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 12, 2004 10:14 am

Keep watching Dean as I know you are good at spotting circulations that are forming....MGC
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#7 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Jul 12, 2004 12:23 pm

My local met just talked about that area that it will be something to watch as conditions are favorable for development in the gulf.
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????

#8 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 12, 2004 12:32 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:My local met just talked about that area that it will be something to watch as conditions are favorable for development in the gulf.


What weatherman said that? :eek:
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#9 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Jul 12, 2004 12:35 pm

Well he actually didn't say exactly that conditions or favorable for development, he just said it will be something to watch. He also said something about light winds in the central gulf. His name is david bernard.
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#10 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:09 pm

If it sits out in The Gulf a few days, it could be of some concern.

My forecast 12/6/2. I might lower next month. :)
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:13 pm

Trader Ron wrote:If it sits out in The Gulf a few days, it could be of some concern.

My forecast 12/6/2. I might lower next month. :)


DON'T DO IT! 1998 started late and we got up to 14 named storms. A season that killed over 12,000 people.
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#12 Postby TS Zack » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:29 pm

Yes, David Bernard did say that. It is rare to happen but has happened before. Plus conditions are very favorable for development.
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#13 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:29 pm

It's Never the number of storms in a given year. Look at 1992, Very few storms,but we had,Andrew.
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#14 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:33 pm

Zack,

Did David say the same thing? If it sits out there in the GOM?
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#15 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:34 pm

2002.. only 4 hurricanes and we might have had two category 4-5 landfalls in Louisiana in two weeks.
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#16 Postby bsuwx » Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:43 pm

It will be something to watch...persistant convection is the key here.

we sure as heck don't need the rain here in N.O. The ground is already very saturated.

convection has been waning in last few frames...if it blows back up, then i'd be watching it more closely.
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#17 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jul 12, 2004 2:58 pm

Just got back in from work, this area could be a concern if the convection re-fires and persists. Some slight counterclockwise spin noted of convection with long range Radar out of Tampa.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktbw.shtml
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#18 Postby MGC » Mon Jul 12, 2004 3:24 pm

Stay on it Dean, I just posted about the mid level circulation....MGC
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#19 Postby GalvestonDuck » Mon Jul 12, 2004 3:37 pm

Too many threads on the same system, so I'm gonna post here.

Let's forget development at this moment. A few have already said winds aren't that strong and, to quote Chad, "poof!"

So, since it's probably not going to be TD#1 or Alex, I'm just hoping someone can explain where they think it will go as is. Will it continue westward and take rain to southern TX and northern MX. Or is there anything out there that will move it out or draw it into another direction?
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#20 Postby GalvestonDuck » Mon Jul 12, 2004 4:38 pm

What the heck am I, duck pate?
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