Bay of Campeche again?

[Guest]

Looks like something spinning off the coast close to Vera Cruz, and the ULL is leaving the area pretty fast so that means swell for S.Tex Woot! Optimistic I am

[MortisFL]

Surprised nobody has commented on the BOC t-storms down there...although looks like the majority might go into Mexico.

[Thunder44]

It's associated with a trough according to the 2:05 TWD from NHC. Doesn't look anything will developing here:

GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NRN GULF ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4 MB HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM CNTRL FL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A
SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH FRACTURED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA YESTERDAY...IS MOVING WWD OVER THE W GULF
TOWARDS THE MEX/TX COAST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
19N-24N BETWEEN 94W-98W AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 94W-98W. THE TSTMS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF...CENTERED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
OVER MEX NEAR 25N102W AND AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO SW LA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED E OF THE RIDGE WITH NLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

[KatDaddy]

Mexican Radar link

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

[Thunder44]

Well, what do you know. It actually became better organzied this afternoon but...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE THE TROUGH IS MOVING
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA.

[lilbump3000]

WELL AINT THAT A ______. It's going to wait until its just off the coast to become better organized.

If you look closely, you can possibly see a circulation but its inland already.

[ColdFront77]

This is the same system that was over the Yucatan Peninsula the last couple of days.

[lilbump3000]

Yes its the same system.

[Derecho]

Veracruz: 5:45PM eastern, 1014 mb...winds 46mph from the north.....

Tampico: 5:50PM Eastern, 1016 mb...winds 14 mph from the north...


Basically nothing at the surface whatsoever.

[alicia-w]

and I thought all the forecasts said it was projected to progress west and inland, no chance at all of formation into a tropical storm....

i keep hearing that the last thing Texas needs is more rain right now.

[GalvestonDuck]

South TX will get it. Those of us up here in Hou/Galv will be spared.

[HurricaneBill]

WELL AINT THAT A ______.

I don't think you had to censor out the word "shame".

[ColdFront77]

....and a trough of low pressure over Georgia will produce a period of southwesterly winds across the Florida peninsula. This is disconnected from the convection in the western Gulf. However, as of now, the steering pattern isn't out of the southwest or the thunderstorm activity will be moving northeastward, not southwestward.

[The Dark Knight]

Well.........Let it rain....