What the heck is going on.........

[cycloneye]

Cloud tops are warming a little bit and it has to persist for more than 24 hours to then take a second look.Pressures will be somewhat lower this afternoon in some of the bouys but those are normal drops in the afternoons.

[Aquawind]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 121736
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED NIGHT)...THE TUTT OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL
MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD AS A H5 RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WILL
KEEP LIGHT MOSTLY WEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SE STATES AND A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL FROM THE ATLANTIC TUE AND WED TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT
AND SHIFTS WINDS SLIGHTLY...TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 1.8-2.2 IN. RANGE ALONG WITH A SEA BREEZE ENHANCED W/SW FLOW
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50 % RANGE
FOR THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS OVER THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER
WITH THE W/SW FLOW COASTAL LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT LATE MORNING ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED PCPN. MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR CLIMO WHILE
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL EBB AND FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH...BUT
THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH CONVECTION EARLY NEAR THE COAST AND LATER INLAND. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS POPS ARE ON THE HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLES...SO
EDGED THEM DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR THE COAST.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY
TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE EAST PACIFIC OR CARIBBEAN...SO
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.ALSO...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TIGHTENS UP THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...SO MAXES WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL AND
MINS A TOUCH ABOVE IN GENERAL.

&&

.MARINE...AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS
AND A TROUGH MOVES IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIGHT WEST FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SOME BUT STAY AT 10KT OR LESS.
ONLY MARINE WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL BE NEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 90 78 90 / 30 50 30 50
FMY 74 91 74 92 / 30 50 30 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 74 90 75 90 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 70 91 71 90 / 30 50 30 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RKR
LONG TERM...FWA

[Anonymous]

From the 2:05pm TPC Discussion

Code: Select all

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN AS FCST WITH 1020
MB HIGH PRES SHIFTING OVER SW LA AND BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE NE GULF. AT 1200Z...A 1016 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FL NEAR 28N84W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SE GA TO 25N87W. A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
83W-88W MOVING IN A MORE OR LESS SLOW SWLY DIRECTION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TX NEAR 25N95W
WITH BROAD NLY FLOW ADVECTING DRY AIR SWD FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
RETREATING NWWD OVER N/CNTRL MEXICO BUT IS DRAWING PAC MOISTURE
NWD OVER E MEXICO...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
STREAMING UP THE COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 96W-99W.



[vbhoutex]

By the way, didn't Alicia form in a similar fashion as well?

Yes, Alicia did form in a similar way. I don't know all the details as I wasn't as versed in weather then, but I do remember it.

We were visiting my parents in FWB that August and my Dad(a huge weather buff!!!)and I noticed the beginnings of what we figured was a possible low developing in the GOM to our S. As the week went on it became obvious that something was trying to spin up. My family and I headed back to Houston and I remember saying to my wife "you watch, we'll have a Hurricane in about 4 days." Little did I know how right I was!!!!! Went through the eye of Alicia four days later at my house in Houston!!!!

[Anonymous]

A good close up vis shot http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_37/anis.html ...You can see a twist near 25.5N/83.3W but not much convection near that twist.