UKMET, AVN show Odd Feature in the Atlantic

[Anonymous]

Both the 06Z AVN and 12Z UKMET show a surface low coming from New England...over the top of the Azores high-then move it southward into the east Atlantic...Avn has a deep low moving south east of the High in 5 days...UKMET shows this as well but isnt as deep.... Any thoughts??

Here is the link http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ Check SLP loop as well as 925MB Voticity-Interesting

[Hurricanehink]

My thought is wow. It looks like the Azores high may be moving a little west so this "system" can squeeze through. It might just be a phantom system, but it is interesting that 2 models pick up on something.

[MWatkins]

It looks like a a sharply amplified ridge/trough pattern...take a look at the 300MB chart for 144 hours....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... hour=144hr

Note that the upper level vorticity fields line up quite well compared to the lower level stuff.

The 144+ GFS actually creates a very deep trough in the western and eastern Atlantic....with a big-old ridge smooshed in the middle.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144m.gif

However...the longer range progs suggest this low will not jump back under the high and head back to the west...but instead will stay in the deeper-layer trough until it lifts out in 10 days or so...returning the basin to more zonal (flat) pattern.

Any low developing will probably be baroclinic/non-tropical and associated with the deep layer trough.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Peter I think is a good example for this low, but that is only if it can develop thunderstorms around its center and go down to at least Subtropical status. After all, it will be something interesting to see for the next days.

[Anonymous]

I like the potential appearance of the upper trough feature in the east US by 144hrs (7/18/04). Might actually get slightly cooler and dryer over SC/NC by the weekend. Lows in the high 60's are quite possible in eastern SC by the weekend as Euro shows sfc high over Michigan with a NE wind component over this area by Monday. (Although this wouldn't be too exciting for hurricane enthusiasts on this thread topic)