mid level rotation?

[Stormcenter]

Probably about 1 in 500 to 1000 of the assorted random thunderstorm complexes that move into the GOM develop into tropical systems.

And it seems to occur perhaps once a decade at best.

I wouldn't hold my breath in anticipation.

You know in Las Vegas 1-500 or even 1-1000 would be
VERY good odds. But I see your point.

[Yankeegirl]

Looking at the visible loop, i can definately see some type of rotation trying to get organized... Too bad we have this high pressure over Texas... I think thats going to push this way south of here... Too bad, I was wanting some rain!!

[rbaker]

i concur, looks like a low level spin, but persistance and pressure falls are the key, plus overnight some thunderstorm activity could fire because of sea temps. Also those buoys don't show anything except typical afternoon falls, and the winds are still out of the west, when they should be from the east or se.

[Stormchaser16]

It is now almost completely void of all convection, but a spin is still there nonetheless....... If convection can fire back up, then we have a player...

Meanwhile my attention is shifting south toward Nicaragua, where a large area of persistant convection is headed NNW with what appears to be a weak circulation.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Shear to the N of the system is non conducive to development, however it MAY slip to the SW of the highest shear zone as it may work NNW towards the Yucatan and maybe the gulf eventually. I will be interested to see if the circulation persists as it heads north.

[Stormchaser16]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Eeeeeks...... not looking too good, however in the last frame it does appear like it wants to fire up more storms on the north side of a weak circulation. Unfortunately it looks as if to me even the circulation may be broadening and weakening. The blob did have some decent outflow but now it seems like the whole thing is outflowing from the center lol.....