Blas Advisories

chadtm80 · #41 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 7:05 am

I think it will JUST make cane status

#42 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 7:07 am

Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:I think it will hit cooler water just before making hurricane status.

I agree.

hurricanefloyd5 · #43 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 7:46 am

i agree too

Thunder44 · #44 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 7:47 am

Close call. The convection is flaring up good this morning but it's little bit eroded on it's western side. Think the NHC will more like keep it just under hurricane status (70 mph). Wouldn't suprise me if got to hurricane status though.

#45 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 10:02 am

I think it has a short but good chance of becoming a hurricane.

#46 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 10:21 am

Anonymous · #47 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 11:27 am

I have a feeling Blas is about to spin up an eye and then spin down rapidly. I think it is going to peak 75-85 mph. I am sticking to my original 80 mph for Blas.

#48 Postby **wx247** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 11:37 am

I think it will... but that is JMHO.

Thunder44 · #49 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 11:41 am

Looks like it's a good possiblity, looking at now. The west side looks it's filled in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Anonymous · #50 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 11:48 am

Boy, this is my first forecast...If it gets to 80 mph... I am very proud.

bahamaswx · #51 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 1:14 pm

Dry air is hurting him atm.

#52 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 1:34 pm

The west side already is being invaded by dry air restricting convection and causing it to not grow more in intensity.I think it got to it's peak intensity and now it will be a weakening phase from now on.I thought this morning that it would briefly get to cane status but looks more ragged this afternoon.

chadtm80 · #53 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 1:38 pm

I agree with you 110% Luis as I too said it would reach cane status before its demise.. Looks like we may be wrong though as it is aproaching the cooler water and the Dry air is being fed right in to her..

I will have a big loop put togher by tonight and will post it

Anonymous · #54 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 1:55 pm

It appears to be wrapping around again...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 2:11 pm

It will mantain winds the same 60 mph at next advisory at 2 PM PDT.

FWBHurricane · #56 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 2:27 pm

I think it will hit 60-65mph then slowly weaken. No cane status.

#57 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 3:07 pm

HurricaneBill · #58 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 3:15 pm

Just out of curiousity, can a hurricane recover from dry air or is it pretty much the "kiss of death"?

I know Isabel and Allen were victims of dry air.

#59 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 3:33 pm

It looks fairly well organized, with good outflow. With the way it has been intensifying, it is certainly possible.

chadtm80 · #60 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jul 13, 2004 3:36 pm

Its at 60 mph now, and NOT getting any better organized.. The dry air is taking its toll

Blas Advisories

I am sticking with 80 mph...

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