GFS 500MB over the next 16 days

[hurricanetrack]

It is really awesome to see the 500MB ridge get beat down with the trough that is coming into the east- AND THEN it gets re-established towards the end of the run. I was looking at the 18Z maps and the ridge is firmly in control once this trough moves on out. This is of course assuming that the 588 height line is the ridge- and when we see a 594 height line- the ridge is even thicker and stronger- like looking at a topo map of the atmosphere. Cool stuff!

[Steve H.]

and your point is...I mean....is the dome of high pressure still blowing dust off Africa and keeping the atmosphere relatively dry, or setting the stage for long runner

[Aquawind]

8pm Miami NWS discussion

THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM GFS MODELS
SHOW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US TO NOT DEEPEN
AS MUCH AS EARLY FORECASTED...AND TO HAVE THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE CWA REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SO PLAN ON MAKING THE WINDS SOUTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.


The pattern continues..

[hurricanetrack]

My point was how well established the ridge appears to be- and that it could lead to some long track storms. Good question from SteveH. :D

[Steve H.]

OK, good. That's what I thought you meant. In the meantime, looks like a potent wave going to exit the African continent again. GFS is toying with it, but its climatology is probably holding it back. Its predecessor at about 30W is also pulsing this morning. My interest level is coming back.