GFS seems to like system in east Atlantic

[hurricanetrack]

Here is just one panel of the current 12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_048s.gif

Even going back to last night, the GFS develops, though not much, the system currently poised just off of Africa. Upper level winds look good, the 500MB ridge is in tact and, from looking at this mornings satellite shots, there is more pop-corn convection in the east Atlantic. So MAYBE the dry air is letting up enough to allow for more to happen.

We shall see...

[Stormchaser16]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

Hmmmmmmmm....... I wouldnt make too much of it right now because not everything wants to jump all over it, however, the system is there, and the factors for development are in place...... it is definately worth watching....Especially since it would not likely develop vey quickly, and it would hide under the Atlantic ridge and head towards the Islands and the Caribbean.

[rbaker]

last night this system had a nice squall line, and as typical not much left of it except a few showers. However, having said that upper levels and models are possibly picking up a 1008mb low there as you had posted. Only other inhibitor is not quite warm enough ssts.

[Stormsfury]

last night this system had a nice squall line, and as typical not much left of it except a few showers. However, having said that upper levels and models are possibly picking up a 1008mb low there as you had posted. Only other inhibitor is not quite warm enough ssts.

Interesting you pointed that out ... it did look more like a WADL (West African Disturbance Line) with the manner that it blew out off the coast yesterday evening ...

[The Dark Knight]

Very interesting system....... We'll all be watching....and hoping.!!!

[hurricanetrack]

The water seems to be near that 80 degree line almost to Cape Verde. I assume that in the next 10 days, the water temps will really go up out there and we'll be in business. Then again, it could be mid-August before anything gets going. It's happened before and things went bonkers from there after.

[Rainband]

The GFS didn't do so hot last time. If the other models start honking then I will be interested

[HURAKAN]

It will be interesting to have a tropical system in the Eastern Atlantic during the last days of July, and the system should have attained a name. Maybe Alex wants to do the same it did in 1998.

[USAwx1]

just as a reminder; One of the most critical things to look for when the GFS is indicating possible TC formation (with a good deal of run-to-run continuity) is other model support.

In many situations the operational GFS will develop these systems with a good deal or run-to-run agreement from the time at which the model finally picks up the system, however often will be at war with it's own ensembles, and the rest of the data.

For example the GFS will develop a system in the ATL basin several runs in a row. At 0z the GFS picks up on the system however the same 0z runs of the CMC, JMA, NOGAPS, and UKMET have NO sign or are only hinting at possible development.

ALWAYS check the OP-GFS output against the rest of the data and ensembles.

[Stormchaser16]

Right now, as said NO other model that I have seen shows any sort of development with the wave as as of now

[Steve H.]

As of 21Z the disturbance looks darn good on sat imagery. Convection is blossoming and it has a nice spherical shape. Let's watch. Caribbean is all bun and no weenie right now. let's look for consistent/building t'storm activity and the pressures will begin to fall. Conditions are getting favorable for this as the ul moves westward.