I know this is way too early to tell for sure, but this wave has higher chances than our other systems. This is not one of those waves we talk about when still over land. This is the wave that is just south of the Cape Verde islands.
Please read the latest 2:05 pm Tropical Weather Discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
TROPICAL ATLC...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL N AREA ALLOWING DEEP ELY FLOW
AND GENERALLY LOW SHEAR VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO RESTRICT
TROPICAL WAVE RELATED CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA.
You'll notice right away that it says that the wave that has just exited Africa has brought in more moisture to the area, meaning (as so many have mentioned already) that the dry air and SAL is currently not a big threat for this system. Due to this, I am finding interesting that the system seems to be organizing this afternoon with convection building all around the broad (ML?) circulation that is probably located near 10N 23W. Honestly, and not to be alarmist, I think that this one has very good chances of trying to do something now that the final piece of the puzzle, which was the dry air, seems to have joined with the other pieces.
I think the wait is almost over and I'm counting on the possibility of seeing at least our first TD of the season come out of this.
Also wanted to point out the increase of showers and thunderstorms associeated with the wave that is just moving into the Caribbean. It looks like it is under favorable winds and moving in tandem with them. This is also confirmed by the latest 2:05 TWD from NHC:
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. EXAMINATION OF THE UPPER AIR TIMESECTIONS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN INDICATES THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT
WITH THE LOWER LEVEL SIGNATURE LAGGING TO THE EAST OF THE MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE
GRENADINE ISLANDS NWD TO ANGUILLA OR FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
60W-63W.
These next few days should prove VERY interesting in the Atlantic...
Comments are welcome...
Cape Verde wave may develop...2:05 TWD info
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Hyperstorm
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rbaker
having not looked at cape verde system in last couple hours looks positive than not. However the system in just west of the antillies is becoming better organized and convection is increasing.
Haven't looked at latest pressures or winds in last couple hours, but at that time pressures were still rather high and winds all from east or se.
Haven't looked at latest pressures or winds in last couple hours, but at that time pressures were still rather high and winds all from east or se.
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The Dark Knight
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Storm Man
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Will This Be The Blue Moon Hurricane I'm Talking About?
We Have To Wait And See.Im Talking About The Wave Off
African Coast.
http://rockreaders.com
We Have To Wait And See.Im Talking About The Wave Off
African Coast.
http://rockreaders.com
Last edited by Storm Man on Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Storm Man
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Yes A CV Hurricane!
16 Day's Till The Blue Moon Hurricane?
It Will Be The Earliest CV Hurricane. In My Opinion.
It Will Be The Earliest CV Hurricane. In My Opinion.
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The Dark Knight
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Stormchaser16
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Does it matter?
Anyways........ I still am not seeing imminent development with the CV wave although I will note that it is indeed the most interesting feature out there right now, for one the possibility of development and secondly, the fact that the Atlantic ridge would most likely force this to the W and not out to sea. Definately something we need to keep an eye on, IF the feature persists for the next 1-2 days then maybe we finally have something to look at. Right now, I would not get my hopes up.
Anyways........ I still am not seeing imminent development with the CV wave although I will note that it is indeed the most interesting feature out there right now, for one the possibility of development and secondly, the fact that the Atlantic ridge would most likely force this to the W and not out to sea. Definately something we need to keep an eye on, IF the feature persists for the next 1-2 days then maybe we finally have something to look at. Right now, I would not get my hopes up.
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Stormchaser16
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Stormchaser16
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GalvestonDuck
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How could it be a separate post when it appears to be the only post? Plus, it came after Storm Man's post so it couldn't have been in conjunction with a previous post or it wouldn't have made sense.
*This separate post brought to you by GalvestonDuck and the makers of InfoSort Filing Folders and Geritol PM
© 2004 GalvestonDuck
*This separate post brought to you by GalvestonDuck and the makers of InfoSort Filing Folders and Geritol PM
© 2004 GalvestonDuck
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The Dark Knight
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Stormchaser16
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And was that post really neccessary duck?
Last edited by Stormchaser16 on Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GalvestonDuck
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Derek Ortt
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Stormsfury
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Re: Yes A CV Hurricane!
Storm Man wrote:16 Day's Till The Blue Moon Hurricane?
It Will Be The Earliest CV Hurricane. In My Opinion.
Nah ... Hurricane Bertha in 1996 already has that covered ...
SF
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