Eastern Caribbean Sea TW

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hurricanemike
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Eastern Caribbean Sea TW

#1 Postby hurricanemike » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:54 pm

530 pm TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

0205 pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. EXAMINATION OF THE UPPER AIR TIMESECTIONS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN INDICATES THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT WITH THE LOWER LEVEL SIGNATURE LAGGING TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL SIGNATURE. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE GRENADINE ISLANDS NWD TO ANGUILLA OR FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
60W-63W.

Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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#2 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:56 pm

Hmmmmm.......
Still need to see pressures fall, this wave does look pretty good, if we start seeing pressures fall then we will have a player.
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#3 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:03 pm

I think this could be our next hot topic in the tropics 8-)
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:10 pm

Image


Im surprised theres this much thunderstroms at the time. Its about night time there and usually all the storms would be gone by now once the sun is gone. If they hold overnight and tomorrow. We might see our first tropical depression of the season.
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#5 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:14 pm

IDK still........ looks can be deceiving, pressures still are not falling :(
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#6 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jul 15, 2004 5:28 pm

Holding together pretty nicely. I don't think it will lose msot of its convection overnight. The wave jsut keeps refiring.
Watch Watch Watch
&
Wait Wait Wait
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.....

#7 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Jul 15, 2004 6:58 pm

It looks good. Now, let's see some persistence!

Most likely, I'll wake up tomorrow, get all excited about it, log on to the NHC, get the satellite pic and see that it's disappeared......
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rbaker

#8 Postby rbaker » Thu Jul 15, 2004 7:27 pm

overnight will tell the story, seems to want to spread over the virgins and maybe north of p.r.
If the trough over the eastern us stays in place for a few days this would be ideal area (hurricane alley) for development but also meaning a turn towards the northwest or north.
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#9 Postby abajan » Thu Jul 15, 2004 7:43 pm

We in Barbados had quite a bit of showers and thunder from this wave but nothing like this:

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/stlucia.shtml

Better keep your eyes on this one!
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Re: .....

#10 Postby jabber » Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:06 pm

Patrick99 wrote:It looks good. Now, let's see some persistence!

Most likely, I'll wake up tomorrow, get all excited about it, log on to the NHC, get the satellite pic and see that it's disappeared......



Oh I really hate when that happens :D
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#11 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:32 pm

I think this is Alex in the making.
O.K. I mean I hope this is Alex in the making.
We need SOMETHING to talk about on this
board.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:46 pm

Poof, poof, and more poofing around.
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#13 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Jul 15, 2004 10:00 pm

Ouch........ poof....... will it still be there in the morning? Who knows.....
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#14 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 16, 2004 5:06 am

Convection has really diminished this morning.
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 16, 2004 6:11 am

It passed Puerto Rico without any fanfare.
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#16 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jul 16, 2004 7:27 am

POOF!!!!!

Just love that shear!!!!NOT!!!!!
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#17 Postby Ola » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:13 am

Just what shear are you talking about? vbh?

Just because something does not develop, it does not mean it has to be shear. There is not hampering shear in that area. It is just that its only a tropical wave, with no llc whatsoever.
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caneman

#18 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:33 am

Not to take sides here but I do believe shear ripped apart this wave. This from he 8:00 discussion: Doesn't this indicate shear?

CARIBBEAN...
INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER NW CUBA DOWN INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY N OF 18N W
OF 79W TO THE COAST OF W CUBA. UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES
W OF 72W WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
N OF COSTA RICA. CONVECTION...THOUGH DIMINISHING
SOME...CONTINUES BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH
NORTHWARD JUST SW OF JAMAICA. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A POSITION NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
23N66W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NW VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NW OVER HISPANIOLA/TURKS/CAICOS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AND FILL. DIFFLUENT FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
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rbaker

#19 Postby rbaker » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:34 am

agree about no shear or very little, dynamics were not there, however some flaring up south of pr this morning around 9a. Sometimes these things pause back and forth till something takes hold.
cape verde system is holding own this morning at about long. 30
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chadtm80

#20 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:35 am

East Carib is the Tropical Wave Grave yard..

And YES sheer DID rip this wave apart for the time being
Last edited by chadtm80 on Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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