Forecasting Weather and Sports

[donsutherland1]

June's challenge proved to be a good success. In that contest, Philly_Eagles won two of the three contests (short-term forecasting and baseball). Overall, there were eight contestants.

Past Winners:
Short-Term Forecasting:
June 2004 Philly_Eagles: 3.32° (avg. error)

Long-Term Forecasting:
June 2004 Don: 2.80° (avg. error)

Sports Forecasting:
June 2004 Philly_Eagles: .080 (error from winning pct.)

This will be a three-part contest:

1) Short-range forecasting: Forecast daily high temperatures for Chicago, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, and Seattle for July 16-20, 2004.

2) Long-range forecasting: Forecast the highest temperature for each of these cities for the entire July 21-31 period.

3) Forecast the combined win-loss record for the Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Florida Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, and Seattle Mariners for the July 16-20 period. Each team will play 5 games during that time.

A separate winner will be announced for each category.

Team Schedules: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseba ... schedules/

With respect to the daily forecasts, I'll try to provide daily updates on the standings. Daily temperatures will be taken from the following sites:

Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

All entries are due by 11:59 pm EDT on July 15.

Also, this contest will be opened up to those at Storm2K, so once all entries have been submitted, I'll provide a link to the thread there for one to be able to see those entries.

In advance, good luck.

Entries:

Short-Range Forecasting:

High Temperatures for July 16:
Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

High Temperatures for July 17:
Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

High Temperatures for July 18:
Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

High Temperatures for July 19:
Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

High Temperatures for July 20:
Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

Baseball:

Combined win-loss record for the Cubs, Royals, Marlins, Phillies, and Mariners:

Long-Range Forecasting:

Highest Temperature during the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago
Kansas City
Miami
Philadelphia
Seattle

[donsutherland1]

Just so that it is clear, the following stations will be used for verifications:

Chicago: ORD
Kansas City: MCI
Miami: MIA
Philadelphia: PHL
Seattle: SEA

[FWBHurricane]

Short-Range Forecasting:

High Temperatures for July 16:
Chicago - 78 degrees
Kansas City - 86 degrees
Miami - 92 degrees
Philadelphia - 83 degrees
Seattle - 76 degrees

High Temperatures for July 17:
Chicago - 75 degrees
Kansas City - 86 degrees
Miami - 93 degrees
Philadelphia - 83 degrees
Seattle - 80 degrees

High Temperatures for July 18:
Chicago - 77 degrees
Kansas City - 86 degrees
Miami - 93 degrees
Philadelphia - 84 degrees
Seattle - 75 degrees

High Temperatures for July 19:
Chicago - 82 degrees
Kansas City - 91 degrees
Miami - 94 degrees
Philadelphia - 83 degrees
Seattle - 72 degrees

High Temperatures for July 20:
Chicago - 84 degrees
Kansas City - 93 degrees
Miami - 94 degrees
Philadelphia - 85 degrees
Seattle - 76 degrees

Baseball: Cubs: Won- 2 Lose- 3, Royals: Won- 1 Lose- 4, Marlins: Won- 2 Lose- 3, Phillies: Won- 3 Lose- 2, Mariners:

Combined win-loss record for the Cubs, Royals, Marlins, Phillies, and Mariners: Won- 3 Lose- 2

Long-Range Forecasting:

Highest Temperature during the July 21-31 Period:
Chicago - 84 degrees
Kansas City - 93 degrees
Miami - 95 degrees
Philadelphia - 85 degrees
Seattle - 80 degrees

[donsutherland1]

Good luck. It will be quite interesting to see how the possible late weekend-early week storm will impact the short-term forecasting contest.

For the WWBB entries: http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/newre ... tid=290076

[donsutherland1]

Contest Underway
Computer Guidance Points to Tight Start

The 2nd weather and sports forecasting challenge is now underway. As was the case last time, there are eight contestants. Along the way, there will be a variety of perils and opportunities.

Will the possible coastal storm batter the short-term forecasting standings as that contest draws to a close?

Will the intense heat that has been frying Texas for days on end, surge into the Plains and then into Chicago?

These are just some of the possibilities that lie ahead.

The baseball contest will likely see a large number of winners sharing the crown of victory. There, just two picks, each with a crowd of proponents, predominate: 11-14 and 13-12.

In terms of the short-term forecasting contest, a rather uneventful start is progged by the computer guidance. This guidance suggests that there could be a very close start with Iceman56 being tapped to become the early leader for the short-range contest.

However, until the thermometers rise to their daily highs before retiring for the evening, this is just speculative.

For now, Philly_Eagles launches the defense of his two titles. Can he sweep the contest this time or will the elements sweep into place a new order?

Stay tuned.

[vbhoutex]

Well, I'll be watching from the sidelines on this one. I reminded myself(obviously not enough!!)to get mine in but promptly forogt to do it too!!!DOH!!!!!

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!!

[donsutherland1]

Not a problem, David. It can happen to anyone.

There will be another one next month.

[donsutherland1]

Number of Spectacular Performances Mark Opening of Contest
Iceman56 and Randy Share Early Lead

The first day of the Short-Term Forecasting challenge was much like a tranquil day on the Royal Troon Golf Course. When the winds are quiet, the sun is shining, and the greens are dry, the Course's "howling monsters" sleep, and golfers can attack par with seeming ease.

That is exactly the kind of conditions that prevailed through most of the opening day of the Short-Range Forecasting challenge. The severe thunderstorms that punished Miami with hail and heavy rains and knocked temperatures into the lower 70s during the afternoon came too late to cause harm to the forecasters.

If some had earlier been “sleepless in Seattle” with concern that dawn's clouds and fog would put a lid on that city's thermometer and elevate forecasting errors, such concerns proved unfounded. As the day matured, the clouds and fog dissipated and the thermometer soared beyond the lofty 80° mark there.

Overall, with the weather mainly quiet across the covered cities, participants were able to post remarkably accurate scores. In fact, six of the eight participants posted an average error of under 3° and three were under 2°. At this point, Iceman56 and Randy (DreamZzZz) share the early lead with stingy margins of error of 1.4°.

All said, on Day 1, the forecasters appeared to humble Mother Nature. The following days will reveal whether her elements will strike back.

For now, after the first day, everyone is in the hunt.

High temperatures for July 16 were:
Chicago: 83°
Kansas City: 86°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 81°
Seattle: 82°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Iceman56.................1.4°
DreamZzZz...............1.4°
Don..........................1.6°
Jshetley1..................2.2°
Philly_Eagles.............2.6°
FWBHurricane...........2.6°
Tony.........................3.2°
Analog96..................3.4°

Baseball update later...

[Guest]

Hey Don. Any chance that you will continue this into NFL season?

[USAwx1]

yeah, i was going to ask the same thing. That would be GREAT

[Guest]

Yeah i for one am alot more into Football then i am baseball. I would love to and participate in that for sure.

[donsutherland1]

KOW and USAwx1,

Yes, I will continue it. NFL cities will be employed during football season. Later, NHL and NBA cities will be used once football season is finished.

[USAwx1]

KOW and USAwx1,

Yes, I will continue it. NFL cities will be employed during football season. Later, NHL and NBA cities will be used once football season is finished.

Cool can't wait.

[Guest]

Thanks Don. Cant wait for that!

[donsutherland1]

Baseball Teams Show Losing Side
The 'sea' proves too much to bear

Last night's scores revealed the the Mariners could not sail and the Marlins could not swim. The Mariners were pounded 18-6 by the Indians and the Marlins were hooked 6-2 by the Pirates. To make matters worse for the Mariners, they were outscored by the Indians' Catcher Victor Martinez who went 5-5, hammered three home runs and drove home seven runs.

Kansas City's being crowned with a royal 12-3 victory and the Phillies turning back the Mets from their drive for first place accounted for the only wins among the teams in the contest.

After the first day, the combined record for these teams is 2-3.

Finally, in an interesting note, if the teams ultimately combine for a 12-13 record, every contestant will share the title for the baseball contest.

[donsutherland1]

Tranquility Rules Again
Margins of Error Remain Small

Another day of forecasts passed uneventfully as tranquility again ruled the weather in the cities covered by the contest. As a consequence, forecasters again produced superior performances.

However, after two days that saw Mother Nature tamed with relative ease, it appears that as promised by the model guidance, Mother Nature is poised for vengeance.

As a coastal storm sweeps off the Mid-Atlantic coast and then north-northeastward, rain will drench East Coast thermometers beginning tomorrow morning, likely keeping readings suppressed below 80° in Philadelphia. This could allow Analog96 to make a giant move into contention.

The gusty onshore winds of looming tempest could also blow well above their current levels. But before the forecasters are faced with their struggle with the elements, they can bask in the sunshine of yet another day of outstanding performances.

It might we well advised that they cherish this evening. Tomorrow night could present quite a different scenario.

High temperatures for July 16 were:
Chicago: 75°
Kansas City: 82°
Miami: 92°
Philadelphia: 87°
Seattle: 81°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.5°
Iceman56.................1.7°
DreamZzZz...............1.8°
FWBHurricane............2.3°
Analog96...................2.5°
Philly_Eagles..............2.5°
Tony..........................2.9°
Jshetley1...................3.2°

[donsutherland1]

Corrected for Seattle's 83-Degree High
Baseball Teams Go 2-3 For 2nd Consecutive Night

After a brief shower, the temperature at Seattle resumed its rise after 6 pm and peaked at 83° near 8 pm. The standings have been corrected to incorporate this high temperature.

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................1.7°
Iceman56.................1.9°
DreamZzZz...............2.0°
Analog96..................2.3°
FWBHurricane...........2.5°
Philly_Eagles.............2.7°
Tony.........................3.1°
Jshetley1..................3.4°

Meanwhile, in baseball, Chicago Cubs' hurler Greg Maddux pitched his first complete game in a year in tossing his 35th career shutout 5-0. He has now won 297 games in his career. The Phillies also pounded the Mets 8-2. However, the rest of the teams came up short.

The cumulative record for the teams now stands at 4-6.

[donsutherland1]

Winds Rise and Scores Follow
Leadership Deadlocked

The two day calm of a Paradise in which the contestants sailed ahead with little or no challenge was shattered today. As winds rose on both Coasts--warm westerly winds in Seattle and cool northeast winds in Philadelphia--scores followed suit.

After today's MOS-busting high of 85° in Seattle (well above the computer guidance) and 74° in Philadelphia (below the guidance), contestants saw their scores at day's end at levels far above those of yesterday. Not one contestant failed to suffer the pain of Mother Nature's revenge in the form of an increased margin of error.

Now, after the third day, the leadership in the short-term forecasting challenge is deadlocked. At the same time, not a single contestant has an average margin of error below 3.0°.

However, even as the scores ballooned, the excitement has only increased. At present, virtually all of the contestants remain very much alive and this should make for a thrilling two-day battle to the finish.

For now, while the contestants dream of the sunshine of victory, they nurse their wounds after having been chastened by a rude return to reality courtesy of today's meteorological challenges.

High temperatures for July 18 were:
Chicago: 79°
Kansas City: 81°
Miami: 93°
Philadelphia: 74°
Seattle: 85°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

Don..........................3.00°
DreamZzZz...............3.00°
Iceman56.................3.20°
Philly_Eagles.............3.40°
Analog96..................3.47°
FWBHurricane...........3.47°
Tony.........................3.53°
Jshetley1..................4.20°

[donsutherland1]

"Groundhog Day" for Baseball Teams

Another day,,another combined 2-3 record.

Now, through the first 3 days of the contest, the Cubs, Royals, Marlins, Phillies, and Mariners have combined for a 6-9 record.

Today, it was the weakest teams in the contest, the Mariners and Royals, who provided the wins. Meanwhile, the strongest teams--the Phillies and Cubs--suffered defeats.

Still, even as the losses have been piling up and the wins have proved quite scarce, this contest is not yet out of reach for anyone who is participating.

Will the start of the new work week finally break the spell of "Groundhog Day" or will it bring more repetition in losing?

[donsutherland1]

Short-Range Contest Moves Into The Stretch
Intense Duel To The Finish Likely

After a day on which stiff winds buffeted the Contest and sent scores rising faster than a kite caught in such gusts, today saw more tranquil conditions return. This return to normalcy did little to ease the exceptionally tight battle for first place.

However, it did just enough to shatter the tie that had been established yesterday. Courtesy of a buoyant thermometer at Philadelphia in which the mercury rebounded to 80° after its waterlogged high of 74° a day earlier, DreamZzZz nosed into an ever so narrow lead.

At this point, he maintains a barely discernible .05° lead with the Contest moving into the stretch. Now, he is faced with the challenge of finding a way to cling to that narrow lead, and perhaps the decisive battle could be fought over Seattle’s high temperature. If Seattle holds to 72° or below, DreamZzZz could prevail. If Chicago rises to no higher than 84°, he may yet have another opportunity should Seattle fail to come through, but this is less certain.

Clearly, a tiny handful of chances are available. Whether or not the mercury cooperates is an entirely different matter. After a long and very tight battle, tomorrow could be a day of celebration for at least one of the contestants and a day of heartbreak for at least another.

Of course, there are some scenarios by which some of the others could prevail. Indeed, Philly_Eagles, who prevailed last month has closed to within 0.30° of the lead.

So, no matter what happens, it does appear that the final day of the Short-Range Forecasting Contest could be filled with thrills as it winds down to the wire, especially if one must wait until late into the evening for Seattle’s high temperature.

High temperatures for July 19 were:
Chicago: 82°
Kansas City: 89°
Miami: 90°
Philadelphia: 80°
Seattle: 77°

Short-Term Forecasting Challenge Standings (Average Error):

DreamZzZz...............2.80°
Don..........................2.85°
Iceman56.................3.10°
Philly_Eagles.............3.10°
Analog96..................3.30°
FWBHurricane...........3.30°
Jshetley1..................3.65°
Tony........................3.65°