The chance for TC to form within 24 hrs. in ATL/EPAC

[LarryWx]

The following linked time-sensitive image shows as of the current date the climatological probability (based on 1949-present) of the formation of a TC within 24 hours for 5 degree x 5 degree boxes throughout the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gpar ... xycfpr.gif

My comments regarding this map as of 12Z on 7/16/04 (keep in mind this map will change with time as it is time senstive):

- Note how much higher the chance is for a good portion of the EPAC with TEN sectors each having a greater than 0.4% chance and with one having a 1.5-2% chance.
- This compares to ZERO sectors having a greater than 0.4% chance in the Atlantic basin.
- Note how dead is most of the Caribbean. I would expect relatively low probabitities for any day for much of the eastern half of the Caribbean even near the clim. Atlantic peak for those 5 x 5 boxes completely within the eastern Caribbean.
- This illustrates how low the clim. chance is for a storm to form in mid-July on any one day in the Atlantic basin and how much higher it is for the EPAC vs. the Atlantic.
- The clim. cumulative probability of formation within 24 hours for somewhere in the Atlantic on 7/16 is ~3% currently based on 1949-present vs. ~10.5% for the EPAC.
- So, on any one day in mid-July, it is probably safe to assume that there is on average about a 1/30 chance for a TC to first form in the Atlantic basin vs. ~1/10 for the EPAC.
- Bottom line: we're still in a very quiet clim. period for the Atlantic although the overall chances will start to slowly rise within the next week.

[Stormsfury]

Nice to see you posting again, Larry ... and thanks for the map link and as always, an informative post.

SF

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, great map! It really sums up the situation well.

[The Dark Knight]

Ya man, awesome link!!!!!!!!!!...............