Solar Flux, ENSO, and Snowy Winters in Boston and New York

[Stormsfury]

Wow ... awesome discussions.

[donsutherland1]

The new PDO number is in: +0.04 for June 2004.

Over the last 5 months, the year closest to 2004 with respect to the PDO is 1994:

Year..........Feb............Mar...........Apr...........May..........Jun
1994.........0.59..........0.80..........1.05..........1.23.........0.46
2004.........0.48..........0.61..........0.57..........0.88.........0.04

2004 is consistently running just a little cooler than 1994. The larger PDO cycle is currently a cool one.

The new PDO figure also argues that no El Nino is likely this summer and also tends to lend some support to the modeled and analog ideas of the arrival of a weak El Nino no earlier than the October-November-December period.

[USAwx1]

1994 would fit well with my 1994-95 analog. Infact Don, if we were still within the long term warm cycle, I would venture to say that 1994-95 was emerging as a dominant analog. because we are not, (and I'm sure the hurricane season verfication will back that up) it really can't be a perdominant analog.

WRT the PDO numbers, I see alot of month-to-month variability (i.e. ups and downs). if the PDO goes negative, 1977-78 becomes an even better analog.

[USAwx1]

1977 1.65 1.11 0.72 0.30 0.31 0.42
1994 1.21 0.59 0.80 1.05 1.23 0.46
2004 0.43 0.48 0.61 0.57 0.88 0.04

All three years saw the same up and down variability in the PDO index.

[donsutherland1]

Very good point, USAwx1. It will be interesting to see how these things continue to play out in the months ahead.

In addition, I took a look earlier today at Boston's climate records mainly to see where July 2004 ranked--currently it's holding in the top ten coldest Julys. In summers in which the June-August mean temperature came to 70° or above and the June-August rainfall came to less than 11", 18/58 (31%) of such winters received 50" or more of snow. For summers in which the mean temperature averaged below 70° and rainfall came to 11" or more, 7/14 (50%) saw 50" or more of snow. Combined the warm-dry and cool-wet summers accounted for 25/33 (76%) of Boston's winters with 50" or more of snow.

If August warms up--it would probably need a mean temperature of around 73.5° to keep Boston in line for such a summer. Of course, if it remains cool, it would need an additional 6.69" of rain from now through August 31 (something that could occur, especially if the coastal storm brings significant rainfall to Boston).

Anyway, this could add a localized argument for what the global analogs might well be suggesting. Of course, I'm far from ready to lock in any analogs at this point. But, I thought this might be somewhat interesting to note.

[USAwx1]

Very good point, USAwx1. It will be interesting to see how these things continue to play out in the months ahead.

In addition, I took a look earlier today at Boston's climate records mainly to see where July 2004 ranked--currently it's holding in the top ten coldest Julys. In summers in which the June-August mean temperature came to 70° or above and the June-August rainfall came to less than 11", 18/58 (31%) of such winters received 50" or more of snow. For summers in which the mean temperature averaged below 70° and rainfall came to 11" or more, 7/14 (50%) saw 50" or more of snow. Combined the warm-dry and cool-wet summers accounted for 25/33 (76%) of Boston's winters with 50" or more of snow.

If August warms up--it would probably need a mean temperature of around 73.5° to keep Boston in line for such a summer. Of course, if it remains cool, it would need an additional 6.69" of rain from now through August 31 (something that could occur, especially if the coastal storm brings significant rainfall to Boston).

Anyway, this could add a localized argument for what the global analogs might well be suggesting. Of course, I'm far from ready to lock in any analogs at this point. But, I thought this might be somewhat interesting to note.

Great post...

I've been toying around with some other methods on my own time which have led me to those analogs beyond what i'm discussing here. i will fill you in at a later time.

Afterall, You DONT expect me to share all of my long-range forecasting secrets w/ the public? right? lol

In any case, I do agree with you WRT boston summer temp/precip comparisons to following season snowfall. it seems to support the preliminary analogs. I have not looked at the rest of the major cities to see if this holds true for them also. If so, then we might be on to something here.

The coastal storm is another issue. remember, ABOVE normal rainfall along the east coast during the Summer and into the fall normally implies above normal cyclogenesis along the EC during the winter. the same as drier than average conditions suggest the opposite.

I'm also watching the SSTA over Hudson's bay VERY closely. We have been seeing a persistent NW flow over that region so far this year which can lead to upwelling -- and PERHAPS a faster expansion of the fall snowpack in ERN canada. We saw it in 2002 and we all know what happened the following winter. Stay tuned on that one.

[Guest]

Great discussion Guys. In the comming weeks i will add some of my own input. I wanna expand some to cover most of the lower 48 and not just the eastern areas which will be great for all. Really need to do some catching up as i have been outta the loop so to say lately but once i am caught up i will add my two cents to the upcomming winter.

[donsutherland1]

It will be interesting to see how the snowcover builds. Years in which the early fall snowcover is largest relative to that of the summer typically see the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast receive somewhat more snowfall than average but the rest of the Mid-Atlantic receive somewhat less snowfall.

Highest Early Fall Snowcover Relative to Summer Snowcover:

Season......BOS..........NYC..........DCA
2002-03.....70.9.........49.3..........40.4
2000-01.....45.9.........35.0............7.4
2003-04.....39.4.........42.6..........12.4
1996-97.....51.9.........10.0............6.7
1993-94.....96.3.........53.4..........13.2
1999-00.....24.9.........16.3..........15.4
1984-85.....26.6.........24.1..........10.3
1989-90.....39.2.........13.4..........15.3
1982-83.....32.7.........27.2..........27.6
1990-91.....19.1.........24.9............8.1

Averages:

Boston: 44.7"
New York City: 29.6"
Washington, DC: 15.7"

[donsutherland1]

KOW,

That would be great.

[USAwx1]

It will be interesting to see how the snowcover builds. Years in which the early fall snowcover is largest relative to that of the summer typically see the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast receive somewhat more snowfall than average but the rest of the Mid-Atlantic receive somewhat less snowfall.

Highest Early Fall Snowcover Relative to Summer Snowcover:

Season......BOS..........NYC..........DCA
2002-03.....70.9.........49.3..........40.4
2000-01.....45.9.........35.0............7.4
2003-04.....39.4.........42.6..........12.4
1996-97.....51.9.........10.0............6.7
1993-94.....96.3.........53.4..........13.2
1999-00.....24.9.........16.3..........15.4
1984-85.....26.6.........24.1..........10.3
1989-90.....39.2.........13.4..........15.3
1982-83.....32.7.........27.2..........27.6
1990-91.....19.1.........24.9............8.1

Averages:

Boston: 44.7"
New York City: 29.6"
Washington, DC: 15.7"

As I look at those years Don, some were LEGENDARY in the MA and NE WRT big snows. 1982-83, 1993-94, 2002-03, while others really sucked such as 2001-02 (but I dont think we can measure that against the rest since it was a solar max winter) and 1990-91.

Overall, a bit too much variability.

The snowcover also impacts the strength of the siberian high during the northern hemispheric winter. Which when stronger than normal tends to suggest a negative AO.

[USAwx1]

i still can't get over that split in the Equatorial PAC SSTA.

look at this verification from the week of 7/7:

07JUL2004 20.8-1.3 25.4 -.4 27.6 .4 29.4 .8

the 1+2 ENSO region is Almost 1.4 DEG C below normal while the 4.0 region is approaching +1.0 DEG C.

Amazing.

[donsutherland1]

USAwx1,

That's a very interesting temperature profile.

The years with the closest July match to that are as follows:

2003: -1.06; +0.54
2002: -0.81; +0.92
1966: -1.03; +0.42
1994: -0.59; +0.82
2001: -0.94; +0.49

If one throws in the QBO, one is left with:

2002
1966 (to some extent)

For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, these would be highly appealing analogs if they were to bear fruit. For the Plains States, there would be hope but also the risk of heartbreak.

Snowfall Totals 1966-67:
Boston: 60.1"
New York City: 51.5"
St. Louis: 3.6"
Washington, DC: 37.1"

Snowfall Totals 2002-03:
Boston: 70.9"
New York City: 49.3"
St. Louis: 29.8"
Washington, DC: 40.4"

[USAwx1]

USAwx1,

That's a very interesting temperature profile.

The years with the closest July match to that are as follows:

2003: -1.06; +0.54
2002: -0.81; +0.92
1966: -1.03; +0.42
1994: -0.59; +0.82
2001: -0.94; +0.49

If one throws in the QBO, one is left with:

2002
1966 (to some extent)

For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, these would be highly appealing analogs if they were to bear fruit. For the Plains States, there would be hope but also the risk of heartbreak.

Snowfall Totals 1966-67:
Boston: 60.1"
New York City: 51.5"
St. Louis: 3.6"
Washington, DC: 37.1"

Snowfall Totals 2002-03:
Boston: 70.9"
New York City: 49.3"
St. Louis: 29.8"
Washington, DC: 40.4"

Only thing I don't like is the QBO peaked in positive cycle in DEC at +13. This year the QBO should be below +5 in DEC. That could also mean (especially if EL NINO is there and the SRN jet is active) a better chance for another DEC MECS. And/Or Severe ice storm.

1994-95 had numbers below +10 through the season so that might be a better match.

I'm looking at 1963-64 too.

QBO:

1963 -17.35 -16.68 -19.93 -21.52 -24.18 -20.08 -9.27 -1.35 3.52 7.54 8.87 5.48
1964 3.94 5.26 5.46 5.94 6.32 2.23 -0.56 -0.57 -0.67 0.42 0.71 0.04


ONI:

1963 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
1964 0.8 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0


Solar:

1963 795 797 778 795 878 835 759 809 851 851 817 784
1964 754 768 759 726 695 690 670 693 702 734 737 788

There was one Big one that year -- Jan 12-13, 1964. And it seems to fit as well as can be expected for the QBo and solar cycles.

Keep these kinds of analogs up and I'll be stock piling non-perishable canned goods.

[USAwx1]

Ok, these are the years that have shown promise so far in one way or another:

1963-64 (El Nino/west QBO)
1966-67 (La Nina/west QBO)
1977-78 (El Nino/west QBO)
1994-95 (El Nino/west QBO)
2002-03 (El Nino/transitional QBO W to E)

1994-95 was in the long-term warm cycle so it had more "typical" El Nino related impacts as compared to those in the Cold cycle of ATL and PAC, thus we must use it w/ caution. Also, lack of high latitude blocking (i.e. -NAO/AO) is suspect IMO.

1963-64 was Not bad, El Nino/west QBO in the ATL/PAC cold cycle w/ pronounced high latitude blocking centered near Iceland and low solar numnbers. MOST CRITICALLY though the El Nino was centered between 120 W and 180 so less heat gets absoarbed and you don't get strong ridging downstream over NA like you would in an EL Nino year where the anomalous SSTA is right up against the SA coast. I'm really liking 1963-64

1966-67 was a Weak La Nina borderline neutrtal winter w/ a west QBO. It would become an analog (and a dominant one at that) If the SSTA go the other way for some reason. Right now, i Don't see that happening.

1977-78, Another El Nino/west QBO winter (HUGE one in the MA and NE), El Nino centered between 120W and 180 like 1963-64 w/ high latitude blocking and tolerable solar numbers. not the best analog but still one nonetheless for the ENSO and to a lesser extent the QBO.

2002-03, El NINO 120W to 180, transitional QBO like this year, (2002-03 may be the best QBO analog), solar numbers are a bit up there, but there was persistent high latitude blocking especially in DEC w/ the undercutting STJ.

AS FAR AS THE NPAC goes, the best analogs right now are 2002 and 1993 (2002-03, 1993-94) w/ the warm pool sitting in the GOA. That should mean a mainly -EPO and WPO this coming winter and a persistently positive PNA pattern (which may be enhanced further my and El Nino). There has already been a response to the warm pool w/ stronger ridging in western NA this past JUN at a time where that signal sould be reather weak if not alltogether non-existant until the AUG-SEP period.

[USAwx1]

[Stormsfury]

Ok, these are the years that have shown promise so far in one way or another:

1963-64 (El Nino/west QBO)
1966-67 (La Nina/west QBO)
1977-78 (El Nino/west QBO)
1994-95 (El Nino/west QBO)
2002-03 (El Nino/transitional QBO W to E)

1994-95 was in the long-term warm cycle so it had more "typical" El Nino related impacts as compared to those in the Cold cycle of ATL and PAC, thus we must use it w/ caution. Also, lack of high latitude blocking (i.e. -NAO/AO) is suspect IMO.

Word of caution on 1994-1995 was the transitioning of the PDO, and the ATL thermaline circ. and this analog possibly in jeopardy ...

1963-64 was Not bad, El Nino/west QBO in the ATL/PAC cold cycle w/ pronounced high latitude blocking centered near Iceland and low solar numnbers. MOST CRITICALLY though the El Nino was centered between 120 W and 180 so less heat gets absoarbed and you don't get strong ridging downstream over NA like you would in an EL Nino year where the anomalous SSTA is right up against the SA coast. I'm really liking 1963-64

Much better match-up.

1966-67 was a Weak La Nina borderline neutrtal winter w/ a west QBO. It would become an analog (and a dominant one at that) If the SSTA go the other way for some reason. Right now, i Don't see that happening.

1977-78, Another El Nino/west QBO winter (HUGE one in the MA and NE), El Nino centered between 120W and 180 like 1963-64 w/ high latitude blocking and tolerable solar numbers. not the best analog but still one nonetheless for the ENSO and to a lesser extent the QBO.

2002-03, El NINO 120W to 180, transitional QBO like this year, (2002-03 may be the best QBO analog), solar numbers are a bit up there, but there was persistent high latitude blocking especially in DEC w/ the undercutting STJ.

These years could very well match up with the IF's right now. I don't like 1966-1967 too much as a match 'cuz I don't expect La Niña conditions either.

2002-2003 - interesting correlation here, but El Niño was more entrenched during the summer and fall months, peaking in Nov/Dec and declining thereafter. This year, IF El Niño does develop, it would be in a developing mode vs. a waning mode, and lag time effects may or may not have time to catch up to the pattern (though this is hypothethically speaking).

AS FAR AS THE NPAC goes, the best analogs right now are 2002 and 1993 (2002-03, 1993-94) w/ the warm pool sitting in the GOA. That should mean a mainly -EPO and WPO this coming winter and a persistently positive PNA pattern (which may be enhanced further by an El Nino). There has already been a response to the warm pool w/ stronger ridging in western NA this past JUN at a time where that signal sould be reather weak if not alltogether non-existant until the AUG-SEP period.

That warm pool has definitely gotten my attention.

SF

[USAwx1]

Ok, these are the years that have shown promise so far in one way or another:

1963-64 (El Nino/west QBO)
1966-67 (La Nina/west QBO)
1977-78 (El Nino/west QBO)
1994-95 (El Nino/west QBO)
2002-03 (El Nino/transitional QBO W to E)

1994-95 was in the long-term warm cycle so it had more "typical" El Nino related impacts as compared to those in the Cold cycle of ATL and PAC, thus we must use it w/ caution. Also, lack of high latitude blocking (i.e. -NAO/AO) is suspect IMO.

Word of caution on 1994-1995 was the transitioning of the PDO, and the ATL thermaline circ. and this analog possibly in jeopardy ...

1963-64 was Not bad, El Nino/west QBO in the ATL/PAC cold cycle w/ pronounced high latitude blocking centered near Iceland and low solar numnbers. MOST CRITICALLY though the El Nino was centered between 120 W and 180 so less heat gets absoarbed and you don't get strong ridging downstream over NA like you would in an EL Nino year where the anomalous SSTA is right up against the SA coast. I'm really liking 1963-64

Much better match-up.

1966-67 was a Weak La Nina borderline neutrtal winter w/ a west QBO. It would become an analog (and a dominant one at that) If the SSTA go the other way for some reason. Right now, i Don't see that happening.

1977-78, Another El Nino/west QBO winter (HUGE one in the MA and NE), El Nino centered between 120W and 180 like 1963-64 w/ high latitude blocking and tolerable solar numbers. not the best analog but still one nonetheless for the ENSO and to a lesser extent the QBO.

2002-03, El NINO 120W to 180, transitional QBO like this year, (2002-03 may be the best QBO analog), solar numbers are a bit up there, but there was persistent high latitude blocking especially in DEC w/ the undercutting STJ.

These years could very well match up with the IF's right now. I don't like 1966-1967 too much as a match 'cuz I don't expect La Niña conditions either.

2002-2003 - interesting correlation here, but El Niño was more entrenched during the summer and fall months, peaking in Nov/Dec and declining thereafter. This year, IF El Niño does develop, it would be in a developing mode vs. a waning mode, and lag time effects may or may not have time to catch up to the pattern (though this is hypothethically speaking).

AS FAR AS THE NPAC goes, the best analogs right now are 2002 and 1993 (2002-03, 1993-94) w/ the warm pool sitting in the GOA. That should mean a mainly -EPO and WPO this coming winter and a persistently positive PNA pattern (which may be enhanced further by an El Nino). There has already been a response to the warm pool w/ stronger ridging in western NA this past JUN at a time where that signal sould be reather weak if not alltogether non-existant until the AUG-SEP period.

That warm pool has definitely gotten my attention.

SF

Do Agree WRT 1994-95. I didn't like it b/c there was little in the way of high latitude blocking and the ATL SSTA configuration was the opposite of what it is this year.

The similarity in the split NINO regions and solar activity
and the QBO got it on the map. as far as being an ATC match NO WAY. PDO match -- Possibly IF it remains positive. if not then 1977-78 is the closest analog.

2002-03 is probably the best QBO match.

[USAwx1]

Furthermore, there may be SOME correlation between Major Eastern US snowstorms and Landfalling Hurricanes.

Some examples:

1992, Hurricane Andrew (CAT 5) -- Following winter, The 1993 Superstorm

1999, Hurricane Floyd -- Following winter, The "carolina Crusher"

2003, Hurricane Isabel -- Following winter, Suppressed System produces over 20" in CLT

2003, Hurricane Juan -- Following winter, the Maritimes Blizzard.

[donsutherland1]

All excellent points, USAwx1 and SF.

[elw]

Wow, this is a really great thread you guys have put together.

I think we all Should give USAwx, Donsutherland and SF a round of applause for their in depth analysis of all the different factors at play for this coming winter.

I have something to contribute as well. When I was looking through some data sets tonight I found two other years that might be able to help you three.

1969-70 was a close match for the ENSO and QBO. 1957-58 was pretty close for mainly the QBO. The ENSO (using the ONI) was a bit on the high side for my liking. the 10.7 cm solar flux values were out of range since it was a solar maximum winter.

In summary, I think the four best years are probably 1963-64, 1969-70, 1977-78, and 2002-03. 1994-95 would not be all that bad, however for the reason SF mentioned involving the Atlantic Thermohaline cycles, you could probably toss it.

hope this helps, and once again, excellent discussion.