Coastal Storm On Tap for End of Weekend

[donsutherland1]

If this were December, January, or February, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern snow geese might well be looking forward to the coming days with increasingly eager anticipation and honking with delight at each model run that even hints at reinforcing their wintry dreams.

They would look forward to the northward march of a gathering arc of clouds, with their slate gray shield lowering and thickening as the hours passed. They would relish the freshening northeast wind that would increasingly bite faces and cut hands with its chill. In time, the air would be filled with tiny, swirling flakes that would transform the landscape as only a wind-whipped snowstorm can. Life would truly be wonderful.

But this is not December, January, or February. So, residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states will have to settle for the possibility of an unusual July nor’easter (there remains some doubt as to its ultimate track so it is not yet fully certain that the coming storm will be a nor’easter or a “dreaded” inland runner).

As the coming weekend draws to a close, the Atlantic Ocean’s waters that are now playfully lapping at the beaches will take on an increasingly angry mood. Come Sunday night into Monday morning, the surf will likely be attacking beaches and lashing boardwalks. Sheets of rain could be drenching the region, parts of which remain saturated from the recent prodigious rains.

Should the storm track just offshore, it will encounter warm ocean waters (earlier runs of the European model consistently took it on an offshore track, but the latest run keeps it inland). There is some chance that these warm waters could help enhance the storm’s development and it might begin to acquire some subtropical characteristics.

Water temperatures include:

Buoy 44009 (Delaware Bay): 76.1°
Buoy 44014 (Virginia Beach): 80.2°
Buoy 41025 (Diamond Shoals): 82.9°

While there is some doubt as to whether the storm will take an offshore track or one that is somewhat inland—a dilemma that often tortures coastal snow geese in the winter—what is increasingly certain is that the storm will affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States.

Meanwhile, as the storm pounds the Atlantic shoreline, Houston will continue to bake in fiery tranquility. Under broiling sunshine, the thermometer will routinely climb into the middle 90s for many more days to come, perhaps into midweek next week.

But amidst these events, a larger drama is quietly beginning to unfold. If one takes a glance at the latest Atlantic Ocean SSTAs, one finds the classic negative NAO tripole: anomalously warm waters near Greenland, cool waters in the rest of the north Atlantic, and warm waters in the south Atlantic. At the same time, the overall pattern remains mildly but not overly progressive and both the El Nino indices and Pacific Decadal Oscillation have retreated to cooler readings in the past month.

What this means is that possibly within weeks, the sleeping lions of the Atlantic Ocean will begin to awaken from their hibernation. Then, the 2004 hurricane season could begin to heat up. Once that happens, the flirtatious waves that moved off the African coastline and the Caribbean disturbances that teased with their bursts of convection, but ultimately failed to move beyond their initial ability to seduce at first sight will be memories. The new storms will be far more serious. But that’s for a later day.

Right now, there’s plenty of near-term action ahead. An unusual coastal nor’easter could lash parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast beginning late this weekend. Houston will continue to cook in its unique stew of heat and humidity spiced by the occasional thunderstorm. The Plains States will begin to warm anew.

[CaluWxBill]

Wonderful write-up Don. I was just think looking at the national radar map, how we would be liking this in the winter time. I was watching the radar noticed the trough has eclipsed the Gulf Coast of Florida. and to think Just two days ago maybe even yesterday, S. GA was getting upper 90's and maybe a few 100's mixed in.

[Stormsfury]

Wonderful write-up Don. I was just think looking at the national radar map, how we would be liking this in the winter time. I was watching the radar noticed the trough has eclipsed the Gulf Coast of Florida. and to think Just two days ago maybe even yesterday, S. GA was getting upper 90's and maybe a few 100's mixed in.

Today in Charleston, it was 94º, but the humidity was lower than yesterday, with heat indices only approaching 100º. Last night when I got back into town, the temperature at 11:00 pm was still 87º, with a 95º heat index ... ouch...

Yesterday's highs included ...

100º in Macon, GA
97º in Charleston, SC (peak heat index was 115º)
98º in Columbia, SC (possibly higher - that was the only temperature report I received)

This is an amazingly amplified pattern for this time of year, and I do like seeing some people talking about winter weather now ... (much like a lot of us tropical weather enthusiasts do during the winter).

One other fortunate thing which has kept this awfully brutal heat in check though, is that for the most part, it hasn't been extremely prolonged, and second, it has been accompanied with storminess as well, and for most, plenty of rain. (Some locations are obviously missing out, and some have been inundated with way, way too much) ... But NOTHING like 1980 where 2/3 of the country was suffering at LEAST moderate drought conditions or worse.

SF

[Stephanie]

I remember last year's Nor'easter in May and we all thought that was unusual!

Actually, after the series of storms that blew through here Monday - Wednesday, it ushered in some REALLY NICE, comfortable weather. I even commented to a friend yesterday that with the breeze that was blowing and the blue sky, it reminded me of autumn. Today will be another one of those days. GREAT sleeping weather!!!

I just hope that the storm doesn't dump a huge amount of rain around here so we can give those folks in Camden and Burlington counties a chance to dry out!

I get this feeling that the Philadelphia metro area must've done something to someone's Cheerios! F3 tornados, 13 inches of rain, Nor'easter...what's next, a hurricane?

[Allexpert Mike]

Don,

Nice write up.

As this low gets started it is going to move right in the favorable diffluent exi region of a UL jet streak which will contribute to the enhanced speed convergence in the lower levels increasing UVM. It appears some areas will see a tremendous amount of rain and i hate to put my location in it but along the jersey shore with the ATL moisture advection, eta indicates a tropical airmass in the BL with dp's reaching into the low 70's.

As you said with the flooding concern from previous storms a few days ago. Right behind this coastal system is another northern stream s/w trough deepening in its wake which could spark off a few more showers and storms.

[Colin]

Jeez, it's like the freaking Day After Tomorrow. F3 Tornadoes, Flooding Rains, and now a Nor' Easter in JULY! I heard it's supposed to snow tomorrow too. 3-6 inches. WOOHOO!

[george_r_1961]

If this low pressure area tracks to the west of me..inland, there could be a catastrophic severe weather outbreak in the mid atlantic with the main threat being torrential downpours and damaging winds. If it stays offshore it may indeed acquire subtropical or even tropical status. Should be an interesting next couple of days!

[donsutherland1]

George,

Good points.

So far, the latest runs of the Euro have been oscillating between inland runner (the last two 12z runs) and coastal storm (the last two 0z runs and earlier 12z runs). The GFS was pointing to a coastal storm (0z and 6z runs) with the bulk of the rain associated coming ahead of the storm.

Overall, I believe the odds favor a coastal track (repeated earlier runs of the Euro and also the GFS' current consistency).

[Colin]

What do you guys think about rain amounts?

[whiteoutwx1796]

tis here. Major flooding on it's way, knocking on our doorsteps, indeed. Some of us may travel with boats tomorrow.






for more information visit: http://www.nyc1weathercenter.bravehost.com

[Colin]

Yup...already had 2 downpours, and have received between .5 and 1" of rain already - with a lot more coming. A long day ahead...a LONG day.

[Stephanie]

We've been getting some pretty good downpours here as well. Looking at the radar though, it doesn't look like it's going to be an all day event. The rain is non-existant south of Baltimore.

[whiteoutwx1796]

Honestly, i can categorize this as an bust for the Bayside, NY area.

[Stephanie]

Well, it was an all day event here. We would go from drizzle to a downpour in no time and it kept up like that the whole day.

It looks like we had about .75" of rain.