WASNT the east coast trough supposed to disappear

[rainstorm]

this year? so far, it has been very persistent protecting the east coast, and a northerly flow over the gom is protecting the gulf and fla. what happened to the ridge?

[Rainband]

UM, isn't a tad early in the season to be worrying about the ridge??

[Stormsfury]

this year? so far, it has been very persistent protecting the east coast, and a northerly flow over the gom is protecting the gulf and fla. what happened to the ridge?

Displaced over TX ... since there hasn't been anything yet in the ATL, the trough in the East producing rounds of severe weather across the South and East have been story enough so far.

[Weatherboy1]

For most of June and early July, there was a strong ridge/Bermuda high over the eastern half of the US and the western Atlantic. The pattern recently shifted to "ridge in the western US, trough in the east" and it looks like it will stay this way for a week at least.

Now here's something else to ponder: the east-US-ridge-west-US-trough pattern lasted for about 6 weeks. So this trough could hang around for a few more weeks itself. But if the pattern once again shifts back "on schedule," we'd likely have a strong ridge in the east ... just in time for the heart of the season in late August and September.

Nothing says these things have to follow a constant rhythm. But if they were to this year, it would open the US up to significant strikes. We'll see...

[rainstorm]

yep, and there is no sign its going to change. the bermuda high is gone

[cycloneye]

Bermuda high will build back again as soon the unusually strong trough for july lifts out.

[Rainband]

Good point Mike

[Rainband]

Bermuda high will build back again as soon the unusually strong trough for july lifts out.

I agree Luis

[rainstorm]

i read where jb says te warm sst's off the east coast will cause it to warm up above normal in the northeast. no sign of that though

[Anonymous]

i read where jb says te warm sst's off the east coast will cause it to warm up above normal in the northeast. no sign of that though

It's coming within the next few weeks.

[MGC]

I would expect the east coast SSTA to moderate with all of the clouds and precipitation they have received as of late.....MGC

[rainstorm]

if the trough continues much longer, we will have upwelling and much cooler water

[rbaker]

here in fla. the bermuda high has been around alot more than last year, only difference it has shifted from north fl to central fla to south(at least the axis). Only until about wed. of this last wk did this unusal trough make it all the way down to north fla, which of course has turned our winds to a mid lat type of westerlies. It will take a few days for this to lift out. Or is pattern shifting to last years pattern or cool wet pattern trough off of east coast? Time will tell.

[Guest]

The ridge was in place for quite a while which was responsible for the dry/hot weather in South Fla & partly responsible for heavy rains in LA.The trough has moved in for only a few days now & BANGGGGGG!!!! Here comes the nay sayer(s).

Gotta love it.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I have to agree Mia!

[Anonymous]

Troughs come....troughs go...this means nothing the canes will still blow

[Aquawind]

From the Tampa NWS Discussion today.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
(FOR MID JULY) WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN STATES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
SEEING THAT THIS IS JULY...AM A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE AGGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS
FRONT...BUT GFS IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRYING ADVECTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO MY NORTHERN ZONES DURING TUES AND
WEDNESDAY...SO HIGHEST POPS SHOULD RESIDE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT...SO WILL KEEP MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE BOTH DAYS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
(~20%) LIKELY FAR NORTH.

DURING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING
REDEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
PROGD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...A SW-WLY WIND FLOW WILL BE THE
RULE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL POPS RETURNING TO ALL ZONES...

[Stephanie]

I understand the NWS skeptism about the trough - it IS July and it has to stop eventually. With that being said, I haven't missed the proverbial "heat pump" that Bermuda High provides us here in the MidAtlantic and Northeast!

[rainydaze]

From Miami NWS:

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE UNUSUALLY
DEEP...FOR JULY...TROUGH IN THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT OUT BUT LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES WILL STILL REQUIRE A BETTER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON TUESDAY. DRYING IS FORECAST ON THE GFS FOR THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE STILL GOOD MOISTURE AND THE
PERSISTENT BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA THAT DAY.
BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN WOULD BE BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY OR BELOW FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE A PROBLEM FORECAST IF THE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION GET LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH AND SIT OVER
VERY WARM GULF WATER FOR DAYS. SOMETIMES SUCH SCENARIOS CAN LEAD TO
UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT.