EPAC ~110W 15N

[Aquawind]

Looks like its organizing into the next TD... Good rotation and now convection..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[F-Bo]

At 1800Z JTWC issued a TCFA for this invest area:

"FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N8 110.7W9 TO 15.8N4 118.8W8 WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MET­ SAT IMAGERY AT 181700Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N9 111.8W1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS."

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 104web.txt

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Aquawind]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182246
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT SUN JUL 18 2004

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE... HAS
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
CLOSE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN IF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ANGEL WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A WESTWARD MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO. THE SYSTEM HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

$$


Similar verbage last night when things pulsed up later in the day..Deep convection has been limited with subsidence to the west and what looks like some shear as well..I don't expect much more than a TD..decent qscat this morning..

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas14.png