Northern GOM

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Sometimes those areas of convection get better organized in very warm waters and ideal conditions aloft so it is something to watch in comming days to see if something will form from it but for now dont get your hopes high to see a cyclone from this.

[kevin]

I have a hunch just looking at the radars and sat loops that this storm complex has a definite potential for development. Caneman talked about pressures around 29.78, but anywhere close would be pretty impressive. Now the question is, will a low level circulation form? If it does, we'll have the first tropical storm of the season.

Come on Alex!

::edit on pressure::

[Josephine96]

{silently prays for Alex as I get ready to go to Sunday School lol}

[chadtm80]

Looks like a WET day for us here in Florida

[Josephine96]

Yes Chad.. I'd say so.. I think I've already had 1 band of rain around 4:30-5am ish

[Anonymous]

pressures are holding steady right now. I am sure we will all be watching today.

[Stormsfury]

Water vapor tells the better story, and upper level diffluence continues to fuel the storms as a s/w rounds the base of the unusually deep trough and ULL across the Eastern U.S.

A rather blocky kind of pattern ATT with another large ULL continues to spin in the Central Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

None of the models are doing anything (even the GFS). the MM5 keeps the trough through its 60 hour period with 2 s/w developing into small SFC lows across the Carolinas ... but nothing tropically speaking (except tropical downpours where convection develops).

SF

[Rainband]

Thanks Mike for the info

[kevin]

Still looks very linear in nature. A straight line across the northern gulf. I don't know the dynamics that form cutoff lows, but just wondering if any of the pros think that this line might produce one. Does a mesocyclone sometimes become a tropical disturbance?

How does convection forming overland due to normal processes (sea breeze) effect convection over water? When a tropical system (or thunderstorm for that matter) is healthy it controls the atmosphere around it. If a low were to form around 3 o clock, would the daytime storms feed it or hinder its development?

Thanks,
Kevin

[Brent]

Well it could develop, but it's going to need some time. I've seen areas of convection come offshore and then develop(most notably Danny around this time in 1997).

[Stormsfury]

Still looks very linear in nature. A straight line across the northern gulf. I don't know the dynamics that form cutoff lows, but just wondering if any of the pros think that this line might produce one. Does a mesocyclone sometimes become a tropical disturbance?

How does convection forming overland due to normal processes (sea breeze) effect convection over water? When a tropical system (or thunderstorm for that matter) is healthy it controls the atmosphere around it. If a low were to form around 3 o clock, would the daytime storms feed it or hinder its development?

Thanks,
Kevin

I don't see the storms across the Northern GOM cutting off ... although a mesoscale convective system couldn't be ruled out should thunderstorm develop become organized. However, even the trigger happy GFS initialized very well at the SFC, and did not suffer convective feedback problems which doesn't show any MCV organization in the GOM. The upper jet in response to the strong cutoff low at the 500mb has reached the GOM coastline which continues to aid upper level diffluence across the region.

Eventually the trough will pull out. MR/LR progs (ensembles) indicate that the trough will slowly pull out. Another one replaces it late this week/weekend, and after 10 days or so, the Bermuda High progged to rebuild ...

SF

[BayouVenteux]

I'm not sure (one of the Pro Mets or well-versed posters could explain the why's ), but it looks to my novice eye like the upper level winds are, for the near term anyway, pretty unfavorable (from the west and fairly strong) to allow that area to stick around in the Gulf and develop. The energy associated with the shortwave activity that rumbled and dumped on us overnight will likely continue to the SSE-ESE and around the base of the trough in the E. Some hefty rains for Florida tho'!

Alas, the weather gods are but tossing table scraps Have patience and rest up...the "real meat" of the season will soon be upon us!

[BayouVenteux]

Thanks for the above explaination Stormsfury!

[Opal storm]

Don't know how you guys think it's possible for this to develop,it's extremly disorganized.

[Derecho]

Well it could develop, but it's going to need some time. I've seen areas of convection come offshore and then develop(most notably Danny around this time in 1997).

As opposed to the approximately 10,000 similar areas that didn't develop since then.

Alicia and Danny are EXTREME EXTREME EXTREME unusual outliers, in an area (the GOM) that normally sees very little tropical development (last year was an extreme outlier as well).

The only reason the convection exists is the screaming jet stream just to the North of it...totally non-tropical...and will likely vanish when that forcing goes away.

[Stormcenter]

Patience my fellow posters patience.
The potential is there for something to
develop.

[rbaker]

i agree that this system is mid lat system for now, however when the trough leaves and convection gets stuck in the gulf, thats when problems happen over 85 degree water temps. So for now just alot of rain for central and north fla. However mid to late week if convection is still evident and pressures are still low at surface, be on guard. Thats why they tell you to be careful at the end of a cold front that sits for a while over a body a water that has had no trpl cyclone activity over it.

[Stormsfury]

i agree that this system is mid lat system for now, however when the trough leaves and convection gets stuck in the gulf, thats when problems happen over 85 degree water temps. So for now just alot of rain for central and north fla. However mid to late week if convection is still evident and pressures are still low at surface, be on guard. Thats why they tell you to be careful at the end of a cold front that sits for a while over a body a water that has had no trpl cyclone activity over it.

This very true about looking at the tail end of cold fronts that are left behind, however, this situation will end with another trough replacing the current one as continued s/w's embedded in the NW flow across the Plain States continue to drop down keeping things very progressive, and not allowing for anything to germinate down there right now.

SF

[ColdFront77]

I've mentioned these features before and have gotten "negative feedback."

[PTrackerLA]

Even though the chances for development are very slim, the convection on the western end of this linear blob is looking pretty impressive. Look like it has good outflow on the visible sat. but if anything were to develop it wouldn't happen today.