TW near 50w 10n becoming better organized.......

[Dean4Storms]

This TW has become better organized and convection has sustained throughout today. It is in a somewhat decent environment for further development and is looking healthier by the hour.

From TWD......

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 980 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 44W S
OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. IT'S AMAZING HOW WELL-DEVELOPED THIS
WAVE HAS BECOME CONSIDERING IT COULD NOT BE FOUND ONLY 2 DAYS AGO.
THE CIRCULATION IS FAIRLY FAR TO THE S...ABOUT 9N/10N...AND THE
ASSOCIATED TSTMS ARE PRIMARILY S OF 11N NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

[abajan]

Yep, I was just looking at it too. If it holds together over the next couple of days could bring some heavy weather my way!

[hurricanemike]

FROM 0805 PM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 46W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AROUND THE S PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS PRODUCING GENERALLY LOW SHEAR. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA NEAR 5N62W NE TO 19N58W MOVING W 10-15 KT. EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG 59W HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS LEAVING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HUNDERSTORMS
FROM BARBADOS NWD TO JUST E OF GUADELOUPE. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE E OF THE WAVE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 55W-62W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME.

[Dean4Storms]

This is the first TW to actually show signs of developing out here and convection increasing along with favorable UL conditions could mean our first real player!

The eastern Carib. looks great for development ahead!

[hial2]

To my understanding, if a wave hasn't developed before reaching the Antilles, then development wont occur until the entity reaches the Western Caribbean.

[KatDaddy]

This TW definitely has potential upstream. I post many excerpts to stir the pot so to speak during the season and it works however I believe this wave will start the season off

[hurricanemike]

A post-analysis of the surface data and satellite images indicate that a tropical depression formed from the disturbed weather at 1800 UTC 24 July when the circulation center was moving just to the north of the island of Margarita along the north coast of Venezuela.

The depression moved westward through the southern Caribbean Sea and reached tropical storm status at 1200 UTC 25 July in the vicinity of Curacao.



However, the wave was moving westward at 20-25 kt at the time, and neither surface observations nor an investigation flight by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicated that the system had a closed circulation. The aircraft did report flight-level winds of tropical-storm force north of the vorticity maximum that passed near Barbados and St. Lucia.

The wave continued rapidly westward with a further increase in organization. Satellite intensity estimates suggested the system was near tropical storm strength by 1500 UTC 8 July. However, a second investigative flight could not find a closed center at that time. Finally, near 1800 UTC the plane found a small area of southwesterly winds and a pressure of 1006 mb. The wave became Tropical Storm Claudette at that time.