First named storm from 2004 to 1995!

[Matthew5]

Here is the date of the first named storm or tropical depression of each your since 1995.


2004 none so far...

2003...Tropical storm Ana with winds of 45 knots...Forms on April 21-24...First April pure tropical cyclone to form in history! (16 named storms)

2002...Tropical storm Arthur forms on July 14 through the 16.

2001...Tropical storm Allison forms on June 5 through the 6th to become the costest tropical storm in united states histroy.


2000...2 Tropical depression formed before the first named storm. They where on the 7th through the 8th of June(Tropical Depression one)...In another June 24th through 25th(Tropical depression 2)...The first named storm was Alberto. Which was something like the third longest lasting storm in Atlatnic hurriacne histroy. It lasted 19 days from August 4 through the 23rd!

1999...Tropical storm Arlene formed on June 11 through the 18th...

1998...Tropical storm Alex formed on July 27th through August 3rd...

1997...Tropical storm Ana formed on June 30th through July 4th...

1996...Tropical storm Arthur formed on June 17th through 20th.

1995...Hurricane Allison formed on June 3rd through the 6th

April...1 (11.1 percent)
May...None (0 percent)
June...5...With two tropical depression that never made tropical storm in 2000... (55 percent) If depression became tropical storms 77 percent!
July...2 (22 percent)
August...1 (With two earlier Depression in June!) (11 percent)


June into July, is normally the month we see the first named storm!

If we don't see one by Mid August(In which doe's not 100 percent rule one out like Andrew that formed on August 16th!) I'm going to start wondering!

But remember seasons like 1998 that started late can still be good ones!

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info

[Hurricanehink]

Nice list. So 2 of the seasons still didn't have their first storm by now. That is acceptable, considering both of those seasons (1998 and 2000) had 14 and 15 storms each. If you back 10 more years, it could be good news. I'll explain.
In 1985, the first storm already formed, so an average season.
In 1986, 2 storms formed by now, leading to an inactive season.
1988 didn't have their first storm until August, so it was active with 12.
89 had a June storm, so an average season.
1990 started late, so it was active with 14.
91 early, inactive.
92 very early with April, inactive.
93 and 94, June storms lead to an inactive year.
My point? Having a June storm may lead to an inactive year, while a later starter leads to a truer Cape Verde season and a more active season. Of course, we are in a different era of activeness, but 2004 still has the potential to be big.
(1987 was the only year that disputed this theory)

[Anonymous]

The bottom line is that the correlation between early season development and activity during the peak is NEGATIVE .35. In other words, this is a GOOD sign if you're forecasting a lot of activity.

[Matthew5]

I would say if the "A" storm doe's not form between now in August 15th. Then you have to start wondering. But for now It could very well be a very active season.