New Models Running...

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MWatkins
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New Models Running...

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:45 am

They went ahead and initialized the 12Z suite...should be out soon.

12Z position was 11.3 55.0...25 knots...

Hey...here's a big shock...the GFDL drops the system immediately.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0407191130

MW
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:59 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071912

Here are the latest runs of the tropical models at 12:00 UTC. Ships continues to show a HURRICANE???.
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#3 Postby MWatkins » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:00 am

Looking at visible imagery this morning...looks like we have some banding going on...although weak...to the north and even what looks like the beginnings of something to the SW. If that is indeed a band...then this looks like a T-1.5 system.

I'll check in when I get time this morning...

MW
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Joe B believes this system will developed

#4 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:06 am

TW looking better and better. Joe B believes this TW will develop and be trapped in the Bahamas by next Saturday. Due to weather pattern next weekend everyone from Brownsville to Savannah needs to watch this system. Large high pressure developing could move the system W across Florida and into the GOM. A guess we shall see.
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#5 Postby alicia-w » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:07 am

When will the tropical models update? I'm still showing they were last updated on Friday.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:10 am

alicia-w wrote:When will the tropical models update? I'm still showing they were last updated on Friday.



Here is the update at 12:00 UTC this morning of tropical models.They update after 2:30 PM the next time today and after that around 8:30 PM tonight.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071912
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...

#7 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:54 am

If it develops, my feeling is that Hispaniola will have something to say about its future intensity (or lack thereof).
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kevin

#8 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:02 am

My initial guess/observation would be that this system will clip the south of Haiti and run across Cuba. That's if it develops within a hundred miles or so either way of the islands... if it is still a wave in the central caribbean my thoughts are Yucatan or the straights between Yucatan and Cuba.
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