Solar Flux, ENSO, and Snowy Winters in Boston and New York

[elw]

1965-66 could become an analog for the January-March period depending on when the QBO goes back to negative.

It was weak positive in December of 1965, and then went negative in January. This could be promising as well, but we will have to wait and see.

QBO:
1965 -1.24 -1.16 0.04 0.62 -0.66 -0.80 -0.47 0.20 0.59 -0.36 -0.59 0.06
1966 -0.82 -0.03 -1.29 0.06 -0.53 0.16 0.26 -0.35 -0.33 -1.17 -1.15 -0.32

ENSO (ONI)
1965 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5
1966 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4

Solar data:
1965 786 752 741 720 782 770 743 748 766 802 777 778
1966 879 842 903 972 985 963 1067 1066 1109 1086 1133 1246

[elw]

By the way, this is the PDO data from the years I picked out (1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70).

Winter 1957-58
1957 -1.82 -0.68 0.03 -0.58 0.57 1.76 0.72 0.51 1.59 1.50 -0.32 -0.55
1958 0.25 0.62 0.25 1.06 1.28 1.33 0.89 1.06 0.29 0.01 -0.18 0.86

Winter 1965-66
1965 -1.24 -1.16 0.04 0.62 -0.66 -0.80 -0.47 0.20 0.59 -0.36 -0.59 0.06
1966 -0.82 -0.03 -1.29 0.06 -0.53 0.16 0.26 -0.35 -0.33 -1.17 -1.15 -0.32

Winter 1969-70
1969 -1.26 -0.95 -0.50 -0.44 -0.20 0.89 0.10 -0.81 -0.66 1.12 0.15 1.38
1970 0.61 0.43 1.33 0.43 -0.49 0.06 -0.68 -1.63 -1.67 -1.39 -0.80 -0.97

The closest match if we extrapolate a little bit on where the PDO indices might be by December, would be 1965-66. If there ends up being a spike strongly positive then 1969-70 and 1957-58 would be closer.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, ELW.

Very good and interesting observations. Certainly, it will be very interesting to see how things ultimately play out.

[ATS]

Excellent Discussion everyone, and very well communicated also.

elw, I particularly like your 1965-66, and 1969-70 analogs, but I fail to see how 1957-58 is a match considering the very high solar activity that year.

It was a solar maximum winter, and this year's values are considerably lower.

If the current Atlantic and North Pacific SSTA configurations hold up into the early stages of the winter (as the QBO decreases to close to neutral by December, and El Nino conditions slowly develop), I have a feeling it will be a very exciting (and early) start to the 2004-05 winter in the Eastern US.

[Heady Guy]

I would also like to add a really good discussion. I have actually learned a few things.

[Four Seasons]

the winter of 57-58 was during a high solar flux cycle. That winter was cold and snowy across the NE. As a kid I remember big storms being blamed on Sun spots. 1958 was also a cold year overall. I just brought this analog up because one would think a high solar flux means a warmer than normal winter with less snow. The analogs that are mimicking the actual weather here are 1960, and 1978 somewhat so far.