We might be starting to wrap.....

The Dark Knight · #1 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:21 am

Look at the latest Dvorak imagery.... it shows the highest clous tops tarting to turn west and appear to be moving in a counter-clockwise motion.... The beginnings of a TD??????........
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:25 am

Hopefully.

The Dark Knight · #3 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:28 am

I really think that it is.... Check this out...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html See how the highest cloud tops are starting to shift west.... Hmmmm..... TD?????

Stormchaser16 · #4 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:28 am

Still not convinced we are near a TD here......

Strong westerly shear as said, dominates the area, this is causing whatever circulation WAS under the convection to race westward out underneath it.... (evident on visible and IR loops), although the main convective cluster looks pretty good, it was kind of dissapointing to me to see a circulation remove itself and fizzle out, so right now I think we may have to wait another day or so to see if it can sustain any circulation under the shear it is facing.

Stormchaser16 · #5 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:31 am

Does it look to anyone else like the system just slammed into a wall on the last few frames? It looks that way to me because the front side is now very flat instead of rounded like before and it looks like the southern side is being pulled out from underneath it....... could this be because the shear is ripping these back apart from the circulation that raced westward out from underneath it?

The Dark Knight · #6 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:31 am

Oh alright...... Oh well..... If it needs more time to develop into a BIG STORM( JUST KIDDIN, MAYBE) then it will get it.......LOL

#7 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:33 am

All we can see right now from Sat. imagery is the mid to UL rotation that was evident 2 days ago. I cannot make out any surface flow toward the east on the western edge of convection so I won't assume that it is at the surface. What is needed now is a scheduling of a Recon mission for late today or early tomorrow before Jamaica runs out of time!!!!!

Thunder44 · #8 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:36 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:Does it look to anyone else like the system just slammed into a wall on the last few frames? It looks that way to me because the front side is now very flat instead of rounded like before and it looks like the southern side is being pulled out from underneath it....... could this be because the shear is ripping these back apart from the circulation that raced westward out from underneath it?

Yeah, but I think it's just slowing down. I don't see anything visibie or water vapor images that suggest that shear is impacting it on the west side. Maybe on the South side a little bit, but it going to stay north of most that shear.

The Dark Knight · #9 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:36 am

Yep, I agree 100% percente........

Stormchaser16 · #10 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:37 am

Agreed........ it is threatening enough now to schedule something to go check it out.....

Dean, not sure what you mean, you dont or do see the circulation that came out from underneath it? Or was there none?

Stormchaser16 · #11 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:38 am

Ok THunder, good point..... it just looked a little funny on the IR loops lol

Aquawind · #12 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:40 am

Dang they missed it on the SSMI passage..

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... thumb.html

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:45 am

Stormchaser...in answer to your question: What is happening is that the tops are warming on that side...so it makes an appearance as slamming into a wall...but the conecection is jsut weaking in that quad. If it was slamming into a wall of shear you would see a very well defined line...on one side would be really cold tops and then nothing on the other. What you see now on the west side is warming cirrus with nothing really happening convectively underneath. If you take a gander at the WV loop you can see the clouds are still advancing east.

What is happening is a diurnal effect. It is very unusual to have a pulse of convection (in tropical systems) last into the midmorning. This is the time of day that conective bursts will normally start to die down....and a new flareup normally will happen late afternoon.

Aquawind · #14 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:01 am

Well today it' elongating from NW-SE..just the oposite from yesterdays wave..looks like a tad of shear holding/enhancing the convection on the south and backside,,yet the northern portion is continuing to advance..overall seems like a slowdown and blowup and not blowout like yesterday..even though it's pulsing down..

Stormchaser16 · #15 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:50 am

I am not completely sold yet....... it has become quite elongated in recent hours, while the overall structure is nice, I cannot place my finger on what is going wrong here. IF the LLC is at the western edge of the convection(the more NW part) then this part seems to be headed WNW and may encounter trouble with the DR/Haiti.... comments?

We might be starting to wrap.....

We might be starting to wrap.....

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